HWFO July 2022 Housekeeping

And thoughts about civil war triggers.

Aug 01, 2022

How bad is it that Civil War is trending on Twitter? Not as bad as you might think, really. A fair chunk of the traffic is about Captain America movies and what transpired in Nigeria yesterday. That said, the domestic tweeting of value regarding the prospect of a second civil war here generally misses the point.

What won’t trigger a second civil war:

Trump loses in 2024.

Trump already lost once, if he loses again we’ll see no significant difference in violence than we already saw. A couple hundred goofy cosplayers will probably try to raid something and fail.

What might trigger a second civil war:

Democrats pass an assault weapons ban and attempt to enforce it with the national guard in areas that the local police refuse to enforce it.
Democrats attempt to pack the Supreme Court.
Democrats stage 2020 Covid/Floyd scale nationwide riots if Trump wins in 2024.

Since all three have been openly contemplated by the left in the past three years, it seems to me that the safest possible outcome for the country to avoid nationwide large scale violence is if DeSantis wins the next presidential election. It also seems to me that the only thing standing in DeSantis’s way is if Trump runs as a third party and Ross Perots the ballots. That’s going to cause the Democrats to do the same thing they did in 2016 - The Pied Piper Plan. Trump only won the 2016 primary because Clinton and Podesta worked behind the scenes to elevate him after their polling showed they’d lose to any other candidate. Hillary was so uniquely awful that she even lost to him. A mere six years later, the Democrats have forgotten how terribly this worked out for them, and are attempting to do the exact same thing in half a dozen elections across the nation. They clearly didn’t learn their lesson, which means they’ll very likely try it again in the big show. You heard it here first.

Subscription

This publication is and will always remain free to read, and any money earned through Substack subscriptions or Patreon will be dutifully spent on the author’s alcohol fund. Anyone who contributes to said alcohol fund will gain access to a private Slack server to discuss HWFO topics with other HWFO readers (and me) outside the public eye. Around 150 people are yammering away in there right now, and some of the article topics are born from these discussions. I’ll post an updated access link in a few days, as subscriber only content. If you’re a Patreon supporter you can gain access too, just email me.

Mission

Handwaving Freakoutery (HWFO) began as a Medium publication in 2018 primarily geared toward mathematical analysis of gun violence in the USA, and pivoted to Substack in 2021. Unfortunately Substack doesn’t have multiple tabs where I can build an article index, so I do those in the monthly housekeeping post.

This was originally a blog about gun statistics, but when we tried to formulate an understanding of why the media gets gun statistics so incredibly wrong, we began to analyze the business incentives for clickbait outrage porn, which in turn led to analyzing the cultural divide itself, going so far as to develop analysis tools to describe what cultures even are.

Handwaving Freakoutery

HWFO July 2022 Housekeeping

And thoughts about civil war triggers.

Subscription

Mission

Index by Topic

General

Guns

Egregores

Culture

Media

Covid

Environmentalism

Discussion about this post