From one of my Marine Corps buddies on this article:
"He acknowledged the small sample size but “37% chance” fails to account for a lot of other variables, or is at least subject to abuse as a statistic cited in support of prepping, given that the most recent qualifying event ended 157 years ago and the majority of Americans have lived and died after that happened. Also his comparison with other failed nation states would benefit from discussion of the fact that even if the US federal government fell, every citizen is still subject to the sovereign jurisdiction of a state which -maybe- would help us mitigate complete doomsday-style collapse of society of the sort that warrants building a bunker and stockpiling food and guns."
Me: You should post this on the Substack.
"I dunno, that feels like I’d be inviting discourse that would require me to do a lot of math and that’s precisely the sort of thing I became an attorney to avoid."
1. The 0.5% probability of collapse year-to-year is not uniform, and is probably stochastic (that is, if last year's probability was lower than 0.5%, it's likely that this year's probability is too, and if last year's probability was above 0.5%, it's likely that this year's is as well). So if you have a lower than 0.5% probability because things are going pretty well, then it's likely that you'll have a long run of low probability. But if your probability of collapse starts to increase to say 2% or 3%, then sh*t starts to get real. We see it in a lot of ways: Dred Scott decision, Bloody Kansas, John Brown, people singing about John Brown, arguments over tariffs that help the North but are paid for by the South, caning in the Senate, election of Lincoln in a 4-way race.
2. The USA is not uniformly vulnerable. The most fragile parts of the country are the inner cities. If and when a collapse occurs, it occurs there first. Most of us would likely never be affected by it.
Thanks. As one who must deliver 5 nines reliability for certain communication links, I am aware of what that entails and costs. The extra nines add up fast. Dealing with the double digits is a lot less expensive and wise insurance for most of us. I can go for three months easily and could push for six but I have friends who are ready for a year. My arms are limited to a shotgun and some pistols, but I'm a bit too old to hunt. Middle aged folk should be a bit more prepared should society break down but we are addressing those who might find your work. I worry more about protecting myself should things go bad.
Afghanistan is pretty much the opposite of America. The idea that even 500,000 AR-15 armed preppers could take on the US military, at home, in a densely populated, mostly urban, country is not a viable idea. I can't do maths so I have no charts. America is also a divided country, so in any SHTF situation you'll be fighting not just the gubmint but your neighbours and armed "militias" (read, find, rob, rape, torture, kill, gangs)
I 'prep' but not for a revolution, I prep for natural disasters and the like. I have no guns as the idea that I could "defend" my goods from armed bands of marauders is silly too. I actually like and can use any kind of gun. I am NOT a pacifist.
But hey, good luck with your pee shooters and 'hiding in the mountains like an Afghan' when a fully armed Marine division shows up. All that aside, you are too fat anyway. LOL
Afghanistan is pretty much the opposite of America. The idea that even 500,000 AR-15 preppers could take on the US military, at home, in a densely populated, mostly urban, country is silly. I can't do maths so I have no charts.
I 'prep' but not for a revolution, I prep for natural disasters and the like. I have no guns as the idea that I could "defend" my goods from armed bands of marauders is silly too. I actually like and can use any kind of gun. I am NOT a pacifist.
But hey, good luck with your pee shooters and 'hiding in the mountains like an Afghan' fantasy when a fully armed Marine division shows up. All that aside, you are too fat anyway. LOL
The Surprisingly Solid Mathematical Case of the Tin Foil Hat Gun Prepper
From one of my Marine Corps buddies on this article:
"He acknowledged the small sample size but “37% chance” fails to account for a lot of other variables, or is at least subject to abuse as a statistic cited in support of prepping, given that the most recent qualifying event ended 157 years ago and the majority of Americans have lived and died after that happened. Also his comparison with other failed nation states would benefit from discussion of the fact that even if the US federal government fell, every citizen is still subject to the sovereign jurisdiction of a state which -maybe- would help us mitigate complete doomsday-style collapse of society of the sort that warrants building a bunker and stockpiling food and guns."
Me: You should post this on the Substack.
"I dunno, that feels like I’d be inviting discourse that would require me to do a lot of math and that’s precisely the sort of thing I became an attorney to avoid."
FYI the correct/updated "firsthand experiences" link is: https://www.shtfplan.com/emergency-preparedness/a-survival-q-a-living-through-shtf-in-the-middle-of-a-war-zone
This is so good. Ended up here after watching you on Rebel Wisdom.
Two observations:
1. The 0.5% probability of collapse year-to-year is not uniform, and is probably stochastic (that is, if last year's probability was lower than 0.5%, it's likely that this year's probability is too, and if last year's probability was above 0.5%, it's likely that this year's is as well). So if you have a lower than 0.5% probability because things are going pretty well, then it's likely that you'll have a long run of low probability. But if your probability of collapse starts to increase to say 2% or 3%, then sh*t starts to get real. We see it in a lot of ways: Dred Scott decision, Bloody Kansas, John Brown, people singing about John Brown, arguments over tariffs that help the North but are paid for by the South, caning in the Senate, election of Lincoln in a 4-way race.
2. The USA is not uniformly vulnerable. The most fragile parts of the country are the inner cities. If and when a collapse occurs, it occurs there first. Most of us would likely never be affected by it.
Thanks. As one who must deliver 5 nines reliability for certain communication links, I am aware of what that entails and costs. The extra nines add up fast. Dealing with the double digits is a lot less expensive and wise insurance for most of us. I can go for three months easily and could push for six but I have friends who are ready for a year. My arms are limited to a shotgun and some pistols, but I'm a bit too old to hunt. Middle aged folk should be a bit more prepared should society break down but we are addressing those who might find your work. I worry more about protecting myself should things go bad.
Right scholarly work, as usual.
I need to buy more ammo.
Afghanistan is pretty much the opposite of America. The idea that even 500,000 AR-15 armed preppers could take on the US military, at home, in a densely populated, mostly urban, country is not a viable idea. I can't do maths so I have no charts. America is also a divided country, so in any SHTF situation you'll be fighting not just the gubmint but your neighbours and armed "militias" (read, find, rob, rape, torture, kill, gangs)
I 'prep' but not for a revolution, I prep for natural disasters and the like. I have no guns as the idea that I could "defend" my goods from armed bands of marauders is silly too. I actually like and can use any kind of gun. I am NOT a pacifist.
But hey, good luck with your pee shooters and 'hiding in the mountains like an Afghan' when a fully armed Marine division shows up. All that aside, you are too fat anyway. LOL
Afghanistan is pretty much the opposite of America. The idea that even 500,000 AR-15 preppers could take on the US military, at home, in a densely populated, mostly urban, country is silly. I can't do maths so I have no charts.
I 'prep' but not for a revolution, I prep for natural disasters and the like. I have no guns as the idea that I could "defend" my goods from armed bands of marauders is silly too. I actually like and can use any kind of gun. I am NOT a pacifist.
But hey, good luck with your pee shooters and 'hiding in the mountains like an Afghan' fantasy when a fully armed Marine division shows up. All that aside, you are too fat anyway. LOL