75 Comments
Sep 11, 2023Liked by Handwaving Freakoutery

I really like what you write about the split between CO2, mechanized agriculture, and urbanization. I think this provides a testable framework that is "synthesizeable" with the existing conventional wisdom on climate change. I don't see a huge incompatibility in what you're saying here with "CO2 causes warming," just with the Greta-Thunberg-Egregore's insistence that any modification or extension of the conventional wisdom is heresy.

The culture war part of this is so sad because I think protecting forests and building nuclear power are culture-war-agnostic solutions that are plainly good ideas on their face.

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Sep 11, 2023Liked by Handwaving Freakoutery

You know what probably isn't factored in enough?

The world's #1 cultivated non-productive crop: lawn grass.

How much? I dunno. It's been a waste of effort and resources and decimated natural landscapes since a bunch of French royals decided it was a great way to show off their fabulous wealth and it got fashionable.

Whoever demands that lawns be banned for the sake of the future of our climate is sure to catch heat from both sides and I'm here for that.

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Sep 11, 2023Liked by Handwaving Freakoutery

Great analysis, and that is basically where I have landed myself after years of loving simple sounding solutions, then finally sitting down and doing the math and then learning everything I can about energy. Sure AGW is happening partly because of CO2 emissions. So what, everyone who can afford it is going to get an air conditioner so strap in because energy is what makes life worth living.

Long story short- we need to make energy 10-100x cheaper so we can have vertical greenhouses and recycle CO2 from the air into synfuels. Then we let nature be nature and keep living our best lives making everyone on the planet richer. So basically- we need as many nukes as possible of every flavor because nothing else has the energy density to accomplish that goal. Everything else is bullshit.

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Sep 11, 2023Liked by Handwaving Freakoutery

NASA has a satellite called CERES that monitors and measures, among other things, downward shortwave(light) flux and how much is reflected. For the last twenty years the show the amount reflected has been decreasing. There is consternation about this. Is it instrument drift, fewer clouds, change in surrface reflectivity, or a combination of all three. and yes, industrial farming and massive urbanization is also mostly ignored or brushed away as not important.

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Sep 11, 2023Liked by Handwaving Freakoutery

did you see anywhere when researching for this piece about the aerosol effects and albedo associated with tanker fuel? I can't remember where I read it now but I saw that EU regulations forced dirty, sulphur-containing tanker fuel to be made cleaner, which lead to less sulphur emissions which significantly reduced the albedo and caused a non-negligible raise in sea temps...though the energy involved there seems enormous so idk

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Jan 4Liked by Handwaving Freakoutery

I live in rural South eastern Australia. After a very dry late winter and early spring all the signs seemed to point to a hot dry summer. (Particularly the IOD ,which is normally more important the further south you go, went max for dry.)

Yet its turned out to be a summer of well above average rainfall and around my area a bit cool definitely not above average maximums .

Don't know what to make of it ; in November while i thought the predictions of extremely dry conditions seemed a bit of a stretch, the indicators were not that clear, i didn't expect that we'd get the equivalent of about four fifths of a average years rainfall in about six weeks either.

Any thoughts?

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Sep 12, 2023Liked by Handwaving Freakoutery

Do you have an article where you describe your concerns about the impacts of mechanized agriculture on the climate?

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Sep 11, 2023Liked by Handwaving Freakoutery

I was confused by this sentence:

"Most “runaway” climate models have an increase in water vapor as a main component without a corresponding increase in cloud cover and therefore decrease in global albedo."

I may simply not have understood what may be a very clear meaning on your part, but did you instead potentially intend to write something like this? "... without a corresponding increase in cloud cover, which would *increase* global albedo and thus reduce warming"?

Seeing this, confirming that increasing cloud cover also has the effect of increasing global albedo ...

https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/features/Clouds

"Because a cloud usually has a higher albedo than the surface beneath it, the cloud reflects more shortwave radiation back to space than the surface would in the absence of the cloud, thus leaving less solar energy available to heat the surface and atmosphere. Hence, this "cloud albedo forcing," taken by itself, tends to cause a cooling or "negative forcing" of the Earth's climate."

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Sep 11, 2023·edited Sep 11, 2023Liked by Handwaving Freakoutery

Does climate change partisan disagreement really fall under the ambit of "culture war"? It's not a cultural issue, and to my knowledge "culture wars" has not subsumed good old fashioned partisan polarization.

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Of course, since it was human industrial activity that caused that volcano to erupt, the only possible answer is for us to stop growing food. Humanity Must Die. So demands Gaia.

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Great work. I imagine the timeline though will depend on how the heat the next two years fires the authoritarianism of the globalist left. I'm glad I know a lot about building, fermenting, hunting, fishing and growing food.

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Global warming: How about the effects of nuclear & conventional weapon testing and endless bombing wars over greed & power 🤦 But by golly, us peasants better suck it up and buy an electric vehicle.

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The earth is not in any danger from anthropogenic warming or even the natural cyclical warming you get between ice ages. It's the more brittle aspects of human civilization that might be in danger. As always, the earth abides.

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I’ve lived in Illinois my whole life. Back when I was a kid and into my early 20s it seemed like the summers were much hotter for much longer. If I’m remembering correctly,around middle of June till beginning of august we could count on 90s-100s for the average temp. We called it the dog days of summer. While we still get some days like that now it doesn’t seem as bad for as long. Even this year. Mid to high 80s seems to me the average around here now days. Doesn’t seem like it’s warming in Illinois. But I will say this. Even if it is,better that than an ice age. The cold sucks. One more point. I kinda find it very egotistical of man kind to think we can make the weather perfect all the time. It’s the weather,it runs in cycles and while we may have some effect on it I’m thinking it’s around the same effect a flea has on a dog.

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Thanks for the article. What do you make of this about methane?

Uh Oh, Methane Evidence Suggests We Entered Ice Age Termination Event

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=72uza9JpT-I&t=691s

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Hard to know stratosphere resident times for water. We actually have data on some of that from nuclear testing. Certain high altitude bombs were seeded (Starfish Prime,etc , 1962) with peculiar metals which allowed debris collection over time to measure their atmospheric re-entry. Most of the scientists involved are now gone. This report https://sgp.fas.org/othergov/doe/lanl/docs1/00322994.pdf says "The residence

time in the stratosphere of special tracers—’102Rh and ‘“109’Cd—incorporated

into the Orange and Starfish devices was 14 years. (Chapter 9)". Pity we can not conduct such tests anymore to better understand the atmospheric physics.

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