Peripherally related, as I said to a twitter follow earlier today,
we may be changing from a scarcity to a post-scarcity civilization, but the trick is in that transition, and more likely than not, it's going to involve a whole lot of people getting killed first. Potentially all of them.
Build a bespoke AI whose sole focus is detecting and destroying other AIs, as well as those directly involved trying to construct all but the killer AI. Problem solved. I'm off for a beer. ;-)
Okay, not to be nit-picky, but any time someone starts going off on how "we're all going to die because", I immediately get turned off.
Since you've posted this, I've spent some time trying to figure out what I'm going to be needing my stockpiled guns and ammo for. What is the AI-Moloch demi-god of death nuclear volcano going to bring about that will necessitate a Book of Eli response on my part?
Interestingly, despite having first encountered Eliezer online over 25 years ago, I cannot predict whether he does or does not already own an AR. He might well have had one even before writing that.
I don’t understand the fluster over AI. What precisely is the cause of alarm?
(1) To me, AI appears to be high level curve fitting. It is trained to replicate a certain data set and spits out exactly what you give it. It doesn’t really “learn”. It just synthesizes a whole bunch of data. Am I wrong in this?
(2) Is AI creative? Does is have the ability to reassociate (i.e. “move the brackets around" to see familiar data in a new way) or substitute in an equivalent expression to open up new possibilities the way a mathematician or poet would?
If it lacks these abilities, then it’s not intelligent. The term “artificial intelligence” seems like a deliberate misnomer designed to scare people raised on Terminator.
To be fair to Eliezer, he's been warning about this as loudly and insistently as he can for two decades... I have no doubt, personally, that he believes everything he says in the article. If you listen to his voice in his interview with Lex Friedman from yesterday, you can tell that he is genuinely frustrated, terrified, and all but despairing: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/lex-fridman-podcast/id1434243584?i=1000606616193
Chatgpt, or rather open-ai buys aws services for 3 million a day to keep up with server demands.
Now. What will happen to the ai if we can't pay that exorbitant Daily feed fee?
Exactly. AI is here, it's insanely useful and probably cheaper than most junk office labour, but that's about it. If ai starts to collapse the economy... no more server farms for it. It's digital habitat being dependent on systems beyond it's direct control, which would be the first to crash in a financial melt down.
I think Elon and his buddies are all posturing like they are because they're owned by the Intelligence Community, and we're already a ways down your Scenario 6. They're just trying to reduce the marginal cost of running their operation and increase its short-term effectiveness by agitating for a "ban" that would reduce (above-board) competition.
That was fun. Creating Moloch scenarios is always a gas. How many firearms can one person use at a time? How can one afford lots of arms and also a loyal army? As suggested, one could use A.I. to program more stuff for A.I., stuff that would be wildly lucrative, and use the A.I. to create culty manufacturing consent apps to ensure the loyalty of one's soldiers in one's army. One would also need lots of A.I.s to help train up one's military assets so that it's super competitive. Also, if one is rich, one can afford a few friends to go with one's military making life more enjoyable until the Big Kahuna A.I. turns one into a paperclip. https://www.tabletmag.com/sections/news/articles/guide-understanding-hoax-century-thirteen-ways-looking-disinformation
How does having an AR-15 help us fight AI? I have a more antiquated carbine, but how does that plus a "spam can" or five help us fight the you-say-likely advance of AI? I really want to know.
Peripherally related, as I said to a twitter follow earlier today,
we may be changing from a scarcity to a post-scarcity civilization, but the trick is in that transition, and more likely than not, it's going to involve a whole lot of people getting killed first. Potentially all of them.
Eliezer's position is very clearly that an AR-15 won't help because you're just way too fucked for that.
Build a bespoke AI whose sole focus is detecting and destroying other AIs, as well as those directly involved trying to construct all but the killer AI. Problem solved. I'm off for a beer. ;-)
Okay, not to be nit-picky, but any time someone starts going off on how "we're all going to die because", I immediately get turned off.
Since you've posted this, I've spent some time trying to figure out what I'm going to be needing my stockpiled guns and ammo for. What is the AI-Moloch demi-god of death nuclear volcano going to bring about that will necessitate a Book of Eli response on my part?
Interestingly, despite having first encountered Eliezer online over 25 years ago, I cannot predict whether he does or does not already own an AR. He might well have had one even before writing that.
I don’t understand the fluster over AI. What precisely is the cause of alarm?
(1) To me, AI appears to be high level curve fitting. It is trained to replicate a certain data set and spits out exactly what you give it. It doesn’t really “learn”. It just synthesizes a whole bunch of data. Am I wrong in this?
(2) Is AI creative? Does is have the ability to reassociate (i.e. “move the brackets around" to see familiar data in a new way) or substitute in an equivalent expression to open up new possibilities the way a mathematician or poet would?
If it lacks these abilities, then it’s not intelligent. The term “artificial intelligence” seems like a deliberate misnomer designed to scare people raised on Terminator.
To be fair to Eliezer, he's been warning about this as loudly and insistently as he can for two decades... I have no doubt, personally, that he believes everything he says in the article. If you listen to his voice in his interview with Lex Friedman from yesterday, you can tell that he is genuinely frustrated, terrified, and all but despairing: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/lex-fridman-podcast/id1434243584?i=1000606616193
And Scott Alexander has been writing on this for a while too and definitely sees the Moloch connection (which, like, he'd better, of course): https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/why-i-am-not-as-much-of-a-doomer
I really really hope that Scott's more right than Eliezer—it would be much much better if Curtis Yarvin turned out to be right: https://graymirror.substack.com/p/the-diminishing-returns-of-intelligence
Chatgpt, or rather open-ai buys aws services for 3 million a day to keep up with server demands.
Now. What will happen to the ai if we can't pay that exorbitant Daily feed fee?
Exactly. AI is here, it's insanely useful and probably cheaper than most junk office labour, but that's about it. If ai starts to collapse the economy... no more server farms for it. It's digital habitat being dependent on systems beyond it's direct control, which would be the first to crash in a financial melt down.
AR-15s are like $400 now. AKs are $800+. Weirdest price trend in my lifetime; wish I had seen it coming in 1993.
I think Elon and his buddies are all posturing like they are because they're owned by the Intelligence Community, and we're already a ways down your Scenario 6. They're just trying to reduce the marginal cost of running their operation and increase its short-term effectiveness by agitating for a "ban" that would reduce (above-board) competition.
That was fun. Creating Moloch scenarios is always a gas. How many firearms can one person use at a time? How can one afford lots of arms and also a loyal army? As suggested, one could use A.I. to program more stuff for A.I., stuff that would be wildly lucrative, and use the A.I. to create culty manufacturing consent apps to ensure the loyalty of one's soldiers in one's army. One would also need lots of A.I.s to help train up one's military assets so that it's super competitive. Also, if one is rich, one can afford a few friends to go with one's military making life more enjoyable until the Big Kahuna A.I. turns one into a paperclip. https://www.tabletmag.com/sections/news/articles/guide-understanding-hoax-century-thirteen-ways-looking-disinformation
> The online “Rationalist” cult lexicon contains many in-group terms for complicated concepts, the most important of which in my opinion is “Moloch.”
I have to go with "Motte and Bailey" here.
How does having an AR-15 help us fight AI? I have a more antiquated carbine, but how does that plus a "spam can" or five help us fight the you-say-likely advance of AI? I really want to know.