Lets just throw shade at everyone.
Heh. I said basically the same thing when someone trotted out that headline.
"That number seems wrong."
I suspect that the unusually high compliance rate among brace owners resulted from the free Form 1s the ATF was handing out.
A Form 1, for anyone who doesn't know, is an application to build a short-barreled rifle/shotgun. It takes about a month to approve, and the associated tax stamp costs $200. ATF said that during the amnesty period, pistol brace owners who wanted to convert their brace guns to SBRs would get moved to the front of the application line, and they'd waive the tax fee.
My guess is that this inflated number isn't apart of a direct attack on the ruling but to bolster "common use" claims in the inevitable court battle.
If braced AR pistols are numerous enough to be in "common use", and they are, according to ATF, a subset of short barreled AR rifles, which are a subset of ARs in general, then all are protected by the second amendment. Boom. Assault weapon bans and a good chunk of the NFA are on the chopping block.
I’ll preface with, I love the work at HWFO, and I cite it often. With that said… If we’re all about being honest, and calling out bad information… someone should either ASK John how he arrived at 29M, yeah? Absent actually asking him, you could derive that information from the 20-40M pistol type “guns” procured in that pistol configuration, then halving that number and erring on a value slightly lower than the reported median (29M). OR, one could investigate how many pistol braces have been sold, and extrapolate how many firearms those were applied to, along with the number of firearms sold in THAT configuration. It’s not entirely unreasonable to arrive at an estimated number. AND, if we are being honest, these types of figures are ALWAYS estimates, because we don’t have a registry for these things and include an estimated guess (with appropriate contextual explanation) to substantiate that estimate.
Furthermore, if we are being honest, you can’t simply remove a stock from a “rifle” and suddenly have it become a pistol. If the firearm in question was sold as a rifle, per the law, it doesn’t become a pistol when the stock is removed. To wit:
“Some Dude: “And if I pull the stock off of a rifle, then it’s a pistol right?”
ATF: “Yeah I guess.””
is at a minimum confusing and at most dishonest, with regards to the interpretation from the ATF concerning Title 1 firearms and configurations, per the USC definitions and case precedent. The ATF even explains this, with their USC source in the below ruling. Pistol > Rifle > Pistol is allowed. Rifle > Pistol is not allowed. If it starts as a rifle, it’s always a rifle. Pistol/Handgun “originally” designed is referenced in this ruling (https://www.atf.gov/firearms/docs/ruling/2011-4-pistols-configured-rifles-rifles-configured-pistols/download)
This is why “receiver” is a category, during A&D (Acquisition and Disposition) at an FFL. A receiver can go either way, and categorizing in the bound book as a “rifle” when a “receiver” is sold marks the item as “starting life as a rifle” and can be legally problematic for the purchaser. This is also defined on the 4473 sec. 24 (https://www.atf.gov/firearms/docs/4473-part-1-firearms-transaction-record-over-counter-atf-form-53009/download)
Again, appreciate the work, but there’s some additional context required on this posting.
The 20 million number might be right in a way, but not the way it's being sold to us.
AR-based pistols are only part of the pistol brace market. There's dracos, 'firearm' short shotguns, a vast assortment of SMG-style pistols, all are contributing to this number that could easily reach 20 million installed pistol braces.
But the new rule effect isn't making them all felons.
First we have those who took advantage of the free form 1s. Then we have the people who took the braces off, pitched them, or just put them in the closet, waiting for the rule to be struck down to put them back on. We have no numbers on these people because they are impossible to track. We know that the number that turned them in to local law enforcement is low enough to be considered zero, but as for all the rest
"29 million felons" though is a blatant reach. "29 million potential felons" would have at least been journalisticlly more honest, if an extrapolation based on very little real data.
So, while I agree with what you wrote, for the most part, one issue still occurs (as you pointed out). IMO, the difference between 6 and 30 million is a rounding error in terms of impact. You move it from 2%-10% of the population. Regardless, on those scales, either number (IMO) is completely ridiculous. No, I don't agree with fudging the numbers to try and win arguments (aka, interweb points). For that matter, just stick to the raw numbers (like the low information haters do) and ignore the percentage. Both are large enough numbers that should concern anyone.
The video sums up the absurdity and again ATF has no constitutional authority to “infringe” on the simple, black & white language of 2A. 2A was written so even stupid people could understand, but Gov is beyond stupid 🤦
Sensible gun control: bothering to do the actual math.
Even Wikipedia explains that the only reason the NFA of 1934 covers weapons based upon barrel length is an artifact of its legislative history. The Act was originally written to regulate handguns just like machineguns. The barrel length provisions were included to prevent the conversion of rifles and shotguns into [the functional equivalent of] unregulated handguns.
As the Act was being deliberated, public opposition motivated Congress to remove the language regulating handguns. But it neglected to remove the now-redundant barrel length provisions.
Fast forward ninety years and a not insubstantial federal bureaucracy has evolved to police firearms based upon barrel length. Many people have also been sent to federal prison for possessing rifles and shotguns with barrels that were too short. To top it all off, any discussion involving guns is ridiculously polarized and the meaning of the phrase “gun control compromise” is universally understood to mean Republicans voting for more gun control.
Considering the number of lives that have been destroyed by overzealous enforcement of these patently absurd provisions of the NFA, I’d give anyone fighting it a lot of slack.
The ATF stands for Alcohol, Tobacco, and Firearms, right?
Next things on the list for the ATF to regulate: grills, barbecues, beer, coolers, and midday to afternoon gatherings in backyards.
Then open stores with "pre-approved goods". Make a ton of money with the ATF Pre-Approved store.
I suspect most people who complied simply removed the brace. I find the brace to get in the way of aiming with my back-up sights and I do not possess the shoulder strength to shoot a large platform pistol one handed.