Probably the most thoughtful piece I've seen on the subject in quite a while. Everyone has a strong opinion on it, but almost no one actually comprehends it. For most, the need transgender people experience is literally unthinkable.
As a point of clarity, I'm MTF trans. I've had a long-standing interest in understanding the psychology of the condition and how our current set of social pressures may be influencing what's going on.
I understand where a lot of people are coming from on the puberty blocker subject. I have a deep skepticism that children somehow have a deep understanding of their gender. I didn't sort it out proper till my late 20s, and I know that reality is not quite solid for children till they hit high school. The pressure applied by our current treatment systems is a recipe for harm.
EDIT: It's been a while since I've looked at the stats, but before the faddish nonsense took hold the ratio of MTF to FTM was roughly 5 to one. Be extremely skeptical of girls in social circles deciding they need to be male. they're particularly susceptible to social pressuring.
Thanks Nik. This article was something like a year in the making, and flowed from private discussions with several 30s+ rationalist MTFs who think a lot about this, and helped me see it through their window. It's a tangled mess.
There is a similar trend of intersectionality virtue climbing among people identifying as Aspie so they can use it as a bludgeon and an excuse to be an asshole. As someone who tries to do *better* than what talent I was born with in that particular regard, it's pretty fantastically galling. I have watched a person (for lack of any better way to put it, and realizing that it's a fairly loose fit) "socially transition to being neurodivergent".
And then ironically, or perhaps it's not ironic at all and actually related, it seems that a fair percentage of these FTM social influenced transfolk actually *are* Aspie.
I wouldn't be terribly surprised by something like that. Social media makes the pecking order far more competitive. Girls, by their nature, will tend take to that like a fish to water.
MTF seems to be biological and tied to Autism in many ways. Not to say social pressure can't be an influence. Usually that comes from family in the case of MTF transitions. At the ages where the Conservative chunks of the population have an issue with 'treatment', boys are frequently totally oblivious to the sort of social maneuvering that gets the girls in trouble.
Calling that neurodivergent move a social transition is actually pretty accurate. Where many trans folks are attempting to transition to a new social framing as something different than what they were previously, these people you've mentioned are attempting to do the same process to a neurodivergent social framing. The major difference is that there's less hardwired resistance to that type of transition in societal role.
Yeah, I was trying to hedge on it since in the case of someone who is trans and, well, transitioning, the idea is that they're, y'know, transitioning. And whatever the answer to the debate on whether one can "truly" transition gender might be, I'm feeling pretty confident that it's not possible to *actually* transition to being Aspie. And if there is, can I please go the other way? Like, not that it hasn't been helpful on occasion but not feeling completely alienated from my species might be cool to try for a change.
There's the distinction. I've met some trans folks that have socially transitioned just about flawlessly, but that doesn't really change anything about the underlying physiology. Some of the horizon tech I'm seeing in papers and trials has potential to revolutionize how Trans health is approached, we're still a long way off a real physical transition from one sex to the other.
It's not unheard of for people to transition out of conditions like that, but as stated, it's a social transition that doesn't change the underlying physiology. It's more of a mask and coping mechanisms to appear 'normal'. Whatever that is.
Hard to say what the future holds, but some of the stuff that's happening in medicine now is magic.
Well, fair enough. "Not feeling like I really know enough to have an opinion on the subject" is the other part of why I'm trying to speak cautiously on the subject regarding trans folk. And... yeah. I do that, and it's how I have managed what levels of success at interacting with the world as I have, but it's ... well, I usually describe it as a software overlay, because of course I do. But, to extend that metaphor, it's got a lot of overhead I'd rather use for other things, and, well, it's software, so it's buggy.
And people look at you strangely when you fuck up some social interaction and then try to offer the excuse that your humanity emulator crashed. ;) Which I haven't actually said, but is a pretty good example of the sort of thing I'm almost 95% successful at not saying out loud most days in such situations of... well, stress.
As for that medical tech... well, my biggest disappointment in 2020 wasn't Covid, but rather that full skeletal replacements a'la Cyberpunk 2020 weren't a real thing. I can't really recommend autoimmune disorders as a lifestyle choice either. :-/
I feel you there. I run into some of the same social problems. My last job dinged me multiple times in performance appraisals for being a bit too direct with people. Running estrogen on unlicensed hardware throws in some extra quirks to keep life interesting too.
While I'm probably a transhumanist, most of that seems to be wanting to function at baseline human. That tech really needs to hurry it up.
As always quite an analysis. I see the same thing but have not quantified as you have. It seems obvious the numbers are reflecting FTM transtrenders. Hopefully they think long and hard about top surgery but twitter and tic-toc allow them to post their scars, alas. But the decrease in T-levels also seems to have created many more fem boys than I recall who seem to disdain surgery; many are more likely gay. They are also featured on twitter. They are also more often on fan video channels hoping to make a buck from their femaleness, often aided by hormones. Not at all sure what hormones do to the futures of these young people but they ought to be somewhat reversible unlike puberty blockers.
I just browsed her substack and it seems like pretty regular TERF War stuff. LMK if you find a link to any mathematical analyses she's done. I'd like to see how she put them together.
Probably the most thoughtful piece I've seen on the subject in quite a while. Everyone has a strong opinion on it, but almost no one actually comprehends it. For most, the need transgender people experience is literally unthinkable.
As a point of clarity, I'm MTF trans. I've had a long-standing interest in understanding the psychology of the condition and how our current set of social pressures may be influencing what's going on.
I understand where a lot of people are coming from on the puberty blocker subject. I have a deep skepticism that children somehow have a deep understanding of their gender. I didn't sort it out proper till my late 20s, and I know that reality is not quite solid for children till they hit high school. The pressure applied by our current treatment systems is a recipe for harm.
EDIT: It's been a while since I've looked at the stats, but before the faddish nonsense took hold the ratio of MTF to FTM was roughly 5 to one. Be extremely skeptical of girls in social circles deciding they need to be male. they're particularly susceptible to social pressuring.
Thanks Nik. This article was something like a year in the making, and flowed from private discussions with several 30s+ rationalist MTFs who think a lot about this, and helped me see it through their window. It's a tangled mess.
There is a similar trend of intersectionality virtue climbing among people identifying as Aspie so they can use it as a bludgeon and an excuse to be an asshole. As someone who tries to do *better* than what talent I was born with in that particular regard, it's pretty fantastically galling. I have watched a person (for lack of any better way to put it, and realizing that it's a fairly loose fit) "socially transition to being neurodivergent".
And then ironically, or perhaps it's not ironic at all and actually related, it seems that a fair percentage of these FTM social influenced transfolk actually *are* Aspie.
I wouldn't be terribly surprised by something like that. Social media makes the pecking order far more competitive. Girls, by their nature, will tend take to that like a fish to water.
MTF seems to be biological and tied to Autism in many ways. Not to say social pressure can't be an influence. Usually that comes from family in the case of MTF transitions. At the ages where the Conservative chunks of the population have an issue with 'treatment', boys are frequently totally oblivious to the sort of social maneuvering that gets the girls in trouble.
Calling that neurodivergent move a social transition is actually pretty accurate. Where many trans folks are attempting to transition to a new social framing as something different than what they were previously, these people you've mentioned are attempting to do the same process to a neurodivergent social framing. The major difference is that there's less hardwired resistance to that type of transition in societal role.
Yeah, I was trying to hedge on it since in the case of someone who is trans and, well, transitioning, the idea is that they're, y'know, transitioning. And whatever the answer to the debate on whether one can "truly" transition gender might be, I'm feeling pretty confident that it's not possible to *actually* transition to being Aspie. And if there is, can I please go the other way? Like, not that it hasn't been helpful on occasion but not feeling completely alienated from my species might be cool to try for a change.
There's the distinction. I've met some trans folks that have socially transitioned just about flawlessly, but that doesn't really change anything about the underlying physiology. Some of the horizon tech I'm seeing in papers and trials has potential to revolutionize how Trans health is approached, we're still a long way off a real physical transition from one sex to the other.
It's not unheard of for people to transition out of conditions like that, but as stated, it's a social transition that doesn't change the underlying physiology. It's more of a mask and coping mechanisms to appear 'normal'. Whatever that is.
Hard to say what the future holds, but some of the stuff that's happening in medicine now is magic.
Well, fair enough. "Not feeling like I really know enough to have an opinion on the subject" is the other part of why I'm trying to speak cautiously on the subject regarding trans folk. And... yeah. I do that, and it's how I have managed what levels of success at interacting with the world as I have, but it's ... well, I usually describe it as a software overlay, because of course I do. But, to extend that metaphor, it's got a lot of overhead I'd rather use for other things, and, well, it's software, so it's buggy.
And people look at you strangely when you fuck up some social interaction and then try to offer the excuse that your humanity emulator crashed. ;) Which I haven't actually said, but is a pretty good example of the sort of thing I'm almost 95% successful at not saying out loud most days in such situations of... well, stress.
As for that medical tech... well, my biggest disappointment in 2020 wasn't Covid, but rather that full skeletal replacements a'la Cyberpunk 2020 weren't a real thing. I can't really recommend autoimmune disorders as a lifestyle choice either. :-/
I feel you there. I run into some of the same social problems. My last job dinged me multiple times in performance appraisals for being a bit too direct with people. Running estrogen on unlicensed hardware throws in some extra quirks to keep life interesting too.
While I'm probably a transhumanist, most of that seems to be wanting to function at baseline human. That tech really needs to hurry it up.
As always quite an analysis. I see the same thing but have not quantified as you have. It seems obvious the numbers are reflecting FTM transtrenders. Hopefully they think long and hard about top surgery but twitter and tic-toc allow them to post their scars, alas. But the decrease in T-levels also seems to have created many more fem boys than I recall who seem to disdain surgery; many are more likely gay. They are also featured on twitter. They are also more often on fan video channels hoping to make a buck from their femaleness, often aided by hormones. Not at all sure what hormones do to the futures of these young people but they ought to be somewhat reversible unlike puberty blockers.
This https://publications.aap.org/pediatrics/article/doi/10.1542/peds.2021-056082/186992/Gender-Identity-5-Years-After-Social-Transition study was quite odd in that it shows wealthy parents seemingly wanting a opposite sexed child if I understand the paper. I simply can't accept that a six year old has any real concept of gender. But as you note the parents both discussing their trans child, I wonder.
Have you followed Abigail Shrier, who writes The Truth Fairy on Substack, and is the Author of Irreversible Damage?
No. The TERF Wars are something that I'd rather not participate in, so I expect this post to be a bit of a hit and run.
She's already crunched some of this data in her book, and came to some of the same conclusions.
I just browsed her substack and it seems like pretty regular TERF War stuff. LMK if you find a link to any mathematical analyses she's done. I'd like to see how she put them together.
Oh interesting. If she's done a deeper mathematical dive I'd like to see it. Do you know some links off the top of your head?