I cleaned up a journal entry that I wrote shortly after the 6th. My argument is that the red tribe has all just had their illusions dashed and dashed completely, in a way that the blue tribe hasn't processed yet, so it's time to buckle up. My thought process on the CW was obviously heavily influenced by what you've been writing at HWFO.
"""
There was some stupid stuff a few days ago. It’s not really important in any physical sense, but it was symbolically important to a lot of people in both quarters of American politics. I get the sense that the reds haven’t processed how important the capitol region symbols are to the blues. I get the sense that the blues haven’t processed how important this last few months in totality has been to the reds.
The problem from the sidelines is that the half of the country that spends most of their attention hating each other is occupying two completely divergent realities at this point.
The blue quarter is riding this authoritarian-euphoric high believing that they have defeated the orange Hitler, and that now is their big chance to expunge his crazy terrorist supporters forever. On the internet.
The red quarter of the country has had a rough few months. Three months ago they had four different boxes available in their quest for self determination. The Soap Box has been eroding slowly for the last few years, but around 2016 it began eroding quickly. By the time October 2020 rolled around the Soap Box was on life support. The first week of November, the red tribe realized that (in their reality) the Ballot Box was gone. Moreover, absent some fixes to the electoral process it was likely to stay gone. In December the courts sidestepped their chance to try and thread the needle one last time, and the red tribe realized that the Jury Box was gone too. A few days later, they watched their messiah get ritualistically martyred (on the internet).
Where does mid-January find us? The blue quarter of the country is shrieking triumphantly and rampaging around destroying every last trace of the red quarter (on the internet). The red quarter is doing what they’ve been doing for the past 270 years or so: organizing IRL committees of correspondence and re-checking their preps.
I’m worried about a few things. First, that people who subscribe to one or the other of the two realities laid out here will dismiss the fact that the other reality is REALITY to a significant chunk of the country. Americans have loved a good LARP since 1773, but Americans know that LARPing is performative art, not how things get changed. Nobody in either quarter thinks that that where things stand now is acceptable.
Second, I worry that purging the red tribe’s Soap Box (on the internet) will hasten the arrival of fourth and final box of American politics. The blue tribe hasn’t grasped that the soap box is the only non-violent option that the red tribe has left to ensure political representation. The blue tribe doesn’t appreciate how radical a departure it is to see red tribe LARPers beating capitol police with Thin Blue Line flags. Something broke in the red tribe this last few weeks.
Third, I worry that the blue quarter’s authoritarian internet rampage will break into the real world as some Patriot Act 2.0, destroying even more freedom in the name of “combating domestic LARPing”. Excuse me, “terrorism”.
Fourth and finally, I’m concerned that the lockdowns have destroyed our ability to escape our internet bubbles. We are all losing touch with the fact that the real world is different from the internet and the TV. The main problem with pessimistic views shared by perma-bear investors and Austrian economists is that they undervalue the flywheel effect that maintains daily life. The flywheel of hundreds of millions of people getting out of bed every day and watching each other going about daily life has gotten us through a lot of tough times.
Right now that life-sustaining flywheel is grinding to a halt. We no longer have the normative power of the crowd watching the crowd be normal. All we see is the internet crazy.
I cleaned up a journal entry that I wrote shortly after the 6th. My argument is that the red tribe has all just had their illusions dashed and dashed completely, in a way that the blue tribe hasn't processed yet, so it's time to buckle up. My thought process on the CW was obviously heavily influenced by what you've been writing at HWFO.
"""
There was some stupid stuff a few days ago. It’s not really important in any physical sense, but it was symbolically important to a lot of people in both quarters of American politics. I get the sense that the reds haven’t processed how important the capitol region symbols are to the blues. I get the sense that the blues haven’t processed how important this last few months in totality has been to the reds.
The problem from the sidelines is that the half of the country that spends most of their attention hating each other is occupying two completely divergent realities at this point.
The blue quarter is riding this authoritarian-euphoric high believing that they have defeated the orange Hitler, and that now is their big chance to expunge his crazy terrorist supporters forever. On the internet.
The red quarter of the country has had a rough few months. Three months ago they had four different boxes available in their quest for self determination. The Soap Box has been eroding slowly for the last few years, but around 2016 it began eroding quickly. By the time October 2020 rolled around the Soap Box was on life support. The first week of November, the red tribe realized that (in their reality) the Ballot Box was gone. Moreover, absent some fixes to the electoral process it was likely to stay gone. In December the courts sidestepped their chance to try and thread the needle one last time, and the red tribe realized that the Jury Box was gone too. A few days later, they watched their messiah get ritualistically martyred (on the internet).
Where does mid-January find us? The blue quarter of the country is shrieking triumphantly and rampaging around destroying every last trace of the red quarter (on the internet). The red quarter is doing what they’ve been doing for the past 270 years or so: organizing IRL committees of correspondence and re-checking their preps.
I’m worried about a few things. First, that people who subscribe to one or the other of the two realities laid out here will dismiss the fact that the other reality is REALITY to a significant chunk of the country. Americans have loved a good LARP since 1773, but Americans know that LARPing is performative art, not how things get changed. Nobody in either quarter thinks that that where things stand now is acceptable.
Second, I worry that purging the red tribe’s Soap Box (on the internet) will hasten the arrival of fourth and final box of American politics. The blue tribe hasn’t grasped that the soap box is the only non-violent option that the red tribe has left to ensure political representation. The blue tribe doesn’t appreciate how radical a departure it is to see red tribe LARPers beating capitol police with Thin Blue Line flags. Something broke in the red tribe this last few weeks.
Third, I worry that the blue quarter’s authoritarian internet rampage will break into the real world as some Patriot Act 2.0, destroying even more freedom in the name of “combating domestic LARPing”. Excuse me, “terrorism”.
Fourth and finally, I’m concerned that the lockdowns have destroyed our ability to escape our internet bubbles. We are all losing touch with the fact that the real world is different from the internet and the TV. The main problem with pessimistic views shared by perma-bear investors and Austrian economists is that they undervalue the flywheel effect that maintains daily life. The flywheel of hundreds of millions of people getting out of bed every day and watching each other going about daily life has gotten us through a lot of tough times.
Right now that life-sustaining flywheel is grinding to a halt. We no longer have the normative power of the crowd watching the crowd be normal. All we see is the internet crazy.
"""