Great article! Have you read Seeing Like a State by James C. Scott? The book has some interesting overlaps with what you've written here, such as: better hierarchies (civilization) beat out worse ones (barbarians).
It is certainly true that "reds" are more likely to be armed and experienced marksmen, but you forget the ace card of the military. No Redneck Militia would hold a chance against the 82nd Airborne, and that's without even considering air strikes, drones, etc.
A violent attempt to overthrow the government would almost assuredly be met with military force, first national guard and if needed, the Army. This has happened before in fact.
This knowledge has to keep the "red" players hands stayed at least a bit. Generals aren't really that hot on Trumpism, with his disdain of "Duty, Honor and Country", the main Officer Corp values. Sacrifice for the great good is at the center of military values.
A less vulgar Conservative leader can be supported though. The real question you have to ask yourself is since this has always been true, why has it never been used before?
Three percent of 350M people is 10.5M armed combatants.
10.5M armed combatants is five times the size of the *entire* US military. Including reserves and the National Guard. And I would not want to wager large amounts of money betting that the members of the NG will be willing to shoot their own relatives and neighbors.
10.5M armed combatants is half of the *entire population of Afghanistan* in the year 2000. You will note that the US military lost there, with significantly looser rules of engagement than they'll have on home turf. Those 10.5M also people live mixed in with the non-combatants. So you can't just indiscriminately bomb them from the air, not without ending up with Afghanistan all over again. Only much better armed, and much better at fancy gun tricks like "aiming".
Ultimately, I would *not* expect the Red Tribe to start a shooting war with the government. But I would absolutely expect it to be perfectly capable of *ending* a shooting war that the government starts.
Great article! Have you read Seeing Like a State by James C. Scott? The book has some interesting overlaps with what you've written here, such as: better hierarchies (civilization) beat out worse ones (barbarians).
It is certainly true that "reds" are more likely to be armed and experienced marksmen, but you forget the ace card of the military. No Redneck Militia would hold a chance against the 82nd Airborne, and that's without even considering air strikes, drones, etc.
A violent attempt to overthrow the government would almost assuredly be met with military force, first national guard and if needed, the Army. This has happened before in fact.
This knowledge has to keep the "red" players hands stayed at least a bit. Generals aren't really that hot on Trumpism, with his disdain of "Duty, Honor and Country", the main Officer Corp values. Sacrifice for the great good is at the center of military values.
A less vulgar Conservative leader can be supported though. The real question you have to ask yourself is since this has always been true, why has it never been used before?
Three percent of 350M people is 10.5M armed combatants.
10.5M armed combatants is five times the size of the *entire* US military. Including reserves and the National Guard. And I would not want to wager large amounts of money betting that the members of the NG will be willing to shoot their own relatives and neighbors.
10.5M armed combatants is half of the *entire population of Afghanistan* in the year 2000. You will note that the US military lost there, with significantly looser rules of engagement than they'll have on home turf. Those 10.5M also people live mixed in with the non-combatants. So you can't just indiscriminately bomb them from the air, not without ending up with Afghanistan all over again. Only much better armed, and much better at fancy gun tricks like "aiming".
Ultimately, I would *not* expect the Red Tribe to start a shooting war with the government. But I would absolutely expect it to be perfectly capable of *ending* a shooting war that the government starts.