Excellent write up. I think the only way that people could possibly be consistent in terms of "I fly" and "I want to pull my kid out of school to avoid getting them shot" is if they happen to live in a very dangerous school district, of the sort where gang violence in the school is a problem. I could see that, although blaming it on school mass shootings is sort of defining the problem incorrectly on their part.
That is also completely ignoring the whole "I put my kid in the car and drive them places" issue as well. Even if driving is much more necessary than flying, and probably more valuable than K-12 public school education (paging Bryan Caplan) it is fantastically more dangerous. Yet people will drive their kids to the school they are considering pulling them out of for fear of shooters.
A couple of things to note: the wikipedia list includes several adults among the victims(and one incident where it seems adults were the targets). This probably makes the actual numerical risk for kids that much smaller. Also, the death rate comparison graph indicates that your health should be a much higher concern than all the other dangers people get panicky about.
I would also add that the three highest kill numbers in that chart are incidents where law enforcement was on scene fairly quickly (SRO on site in the case of Parkland) but did not engage immediately.
I may not be able to *visualize* ten million grade schoolers (that being five times the population of my entire state) but I'm sure basically everyone is aware of the expression of incredulity, "that's a one in a million chance".
Well, this is a one in six million chance.
(Yes, we still run into the difficulty of actually visualizing that, but the rhetorical phrase is well embedded in our culture.)
It seems odd to compare US stats in one realm to global in another. The US, per capita, flies a heck of a lot more than anywhere else in the world, while also having far fewer fatalities per passenger mile. Since 2006, US scheduled airlines have had two fatal mishaps, with 50 total fatalities. That rate is even less distinguishable from zero than spree shooting deaths per student year.
Perhaps better would be US passenger vehicle fatalities. As an offhand guess, driving a child to school is probably at least two orders of magnitude more likely to result in injury or death to the child than spree shootings.
Yet the hand waving freakoutery of the latter is at least six orders of magnitude than the former.
Tuning language to maximize colloquial misunderstanding is their superpower. Given your shockingly low stats I wrongly presumed ‘grade school” here meant K-6 - thanks for another verifiable fact to help fear riddled people understand context.
School shooter describes anyone on the skeet team. Active shooter describes anyone that practices on the reg. On the YT channel serpentza, mass public killings in China are described as “revenge against society attacks” , strikingly descriptive of the real root cause, isn’t it?
skeet/trap/clay target not sure the correct term (or if they are actual school-sponsored teams), Tom Gresham's Gun Talk spoke of students earning college scholarships and how these well disciplined these students are school studies. Searching "Scholastic Shooting Sports Foundation" pulls up some info , also "The Pennsylvania State High School Clay Target League" but again not sure if school teams competing with other schools.
Pretty sure there are at least a few schools with indoor shooting ranges (pulling double duty as nuclear shelters) although the only actives ones Ive heard of are air guns
Great article! I went to post this on Twitter, and then realized this comes on the heels of the shooting in Iowa - did you write and post this in response to that, or was it coincidental?
I had the article half-written sitting on a shelf and cleaned it up for publication when I saw someone on my feed say "great, another school shooting."
In March of 2020, a COVID-motivated office closure meant the end of my 50-miles-each-way commute on busy highways that regularly saw rush-hour accidents.
I remarked that because of the closure, COVID had become my most likely cause of death.
Prior to the closure, the commute was more likely to kill me than COVID was, but the policy removed the commute from the equation, leaving COVID as the most serious threat remaining.
I agree with you and would still like to see “ deaths per million” for only school ages , not entire population to be able to present a stronger argument when this discussion comes up.
Airline fatalities are nonexistent in the US, whereas most of the school shootings are located here. Also your child being killed at school is about 10000000x more devastating than the whole family perishing in a plane crash. But your overall point is well taken
I guess my initial reaction was just that risk and how we approach it can't fully be handled in terms of abstracted numbers. There are very real emotional components to it that aren't fully irrational
Excellent write up. I think the only way that people could possibly be consistent in terms of "I fly" and "I want to pull my kid out of school to avoid getting them shot" is if they happen to live in a very dangerous school district, of the sort where gang violence in the school is a problem. I could see that, although blaming it on school mass shootings is sort of defining the problem incorrectly on their part.
That is also completely ignoring the whole "I put my kid in the car and drive them places" issue as well. Even if driving is much more necessary than flying, and probably more valuable than K-12 public school education (paging Bryan Caplan) it is fantastically more dangerous. Yet people will drive their kids to the school they are considering pulling them out of for fear of shooters.
A couple of things to note: the wikipedia list includes several adults among the victims(and one incident where it seems adults were the targets). This probably makes the actual numerical risk for kids that much smaller. Also, the death rate comparison graph indicates that your health should be a much higher concern than all the other dangers people get panicky about.
I would also add that the three highest kill numbers in that chart are incidents where law enforcement was on scene fairly quickly (SRO on site in the case of Parkland) but did not engage immediately.
I may not be able to *visualize* ten million grade schoolers (that being five times the population of my entire state) but I'm sure basically everyone is aware of the expression of incredulity, "that's a one in a million chance".
Well, this is a one in six million chance.
(Yes, we still run into the difficulty of actually visualizing that, but the rhetorical phrase is well embedded in our culture.)
Also, for the comparison table, I might convert the other numbers *to* "deaths per ten million" rather than shootings and airplanes *from* there.
1.5 airplane deaths compared to 16,150 heart attacks will be easier for the innumerate to grasp.
In retrospect this would have been a better idea. You're exactly correct.
I mean... you could *change* it if you wanted. It's your website. ;)
"One death is a tragedy, a million deaths is a statistic" works in the same way.
It seems odd to compare US stats in one realm to global in another. The US, per capita, flies a heck of a lot more than anywhere else in the world, while also having far fewer fatalities per passenger mile. Since 2006, US scheduled airlines have had two fatal mishaps, with 50 total fatalities. That rate is even less distinguishable from zero than spree shooting deaths per student year.
Perhaps better would be US passenger vehicle fatalities. As an offhand guess, driving a child to school is probably at least two orders of magnitude more likely to result in injury or death to the child than spree shootings.
Yet the hand waving freakoutery of the latter is at least six orders of magnitude than the former.
oh please please please add lightning strikes and fatalities.
Lovely stuff. Keep it up.
Tuning language to maximize colloquial misunderstanding is their superpower. Given your shockingly low stats I wrongly presumed ‘grade school” here meant K-6 - thanks for another verifiable fact to help fear riddled people understand context.
School shooter describes anyone on the skeet team. Active shooter describes anyone that practices on the reg. On the YT channel serpentza, mass public killings in China are described as “revenge against society attacks” , strikingly descriptive of the real root cause, isn’t it?
You know of a school that still has a skeet team in 2024?
Do they shoot at dodos and carrier pigeons? 🤣
skeet/trap/clay target not sure the correct term (or if they are actual school-sponsored teams), Tom Gresham's Gun Talk spoke of students earning college scholarships and how these well disciplined these students are school studies. Searching "Scholastic Shooting Sports Foundation" pulls up some info , also "The Pennsylvania State High School Clay Target League" but again not sure if school teams competing with other schools.
Pretty sure there are at least a few schools with indoor shooting ranges (pulling double duty as nuclear shelters) although the only actives ones Ive heard of are air guns
Well, knock me over with a feather. I never would have guessed in this day and age. I mean *awesome*, I'm just shocked.
Yes, some do. Visit https://mysctp.com/
Having been shot, seen people shot, I will now Unsubscribe
Great article! I went to post this on Twitter, and then realized this comes on the heels of the shooting in Iowa - did you write and post this in response to that, or was it coincidental?
I had the article half-written sitting on a shelf and cleaned it up for publication when I saw someone on my feed say "great, another school shooting."
I have not looked into that shooting yet.
In March of 2020, a COVID-motivated office closure meant the end of my 50-miles-each-way commute on busy highways that regularly saw rush-hour accidents.
I remarked that because of the closure, COVID had become my most likely cause of death.
Prior to the closure, the commute was more likely to kill me than COVID was, but the policy removed the commute from the equation, leaving COVID as the most serious threat remaining.
People are generally innumerate.
LOTS of other reasons to homeschool, or have one's kids in a private school, but school shooters is way down on the list.
I agree with you and would still like to see “ deaths per million” for only school ages , not entire population to be able to present a stronger argument when this discussion comes up.
The numbers presented here are "deaths per million children who attend school," not deaths per million total population.
Airline fatalities are nonexistent in the US, whereas most of the school shootings are located here. Also your child being killed at school is about 10000000x more devastating than the whole family perishing in a plane crash. But your overall point is well taken
10000000x more devastating? Are you sure it isn't 100000000x?
Let’s not push our luck... Another 14CFR part 121 aircraft crash will happen at some point in the future- the risk is non-zero.
100%, and you can get blackpilled there very easily...
https://www.palladiummag.com/2023/06/01/complex-systems-wont-survive-the-competence-crisis/
I guess my initial reaction was just that risk and how we approach it can't fully be handled in terms of abstracted numbers. There are very real emotional components to it that aren't fully irrational