As a south Ukraine peon who immigrated to US a few years ago, I like Western Lizards peons quality of life much much better :)
A few thoughts:
1.
It will be interesting to get some attempt of quantifiable comparison of the level of influence of Western Lizards vs Russian Lizards. I am under impression that the level of influence of Western Lizards in Ukraine is very overrated among Western Lizards peons. These lizards did a great job convincing their peons about how they (Western Lizards) are very mighty and nothing happened in these poor countries (like Ukraine) without a gentle CIA touch.
2.
South Ukraine (Zaporizhian Cossacks, and all other later gangs) was a big cultural melting pot. But it was leaning to Western Lizards way of doing governing their peons. This is in contrast to Muscovy/Russia with their actual Mongolian heritage.
Nov 20, 2022·edited Nov 20, 2022Liked by Handwaving Freakoutery
> "If you are incapable of isolating and stripping out the morality portion of your brain, and setting it on a shelf, quit reading now because the rest of this article is just going to give you anxiety and I can’t be responsible for that. Anxiety is bad for your health. Go watch cat videos or something."
I'm generally *not* thus incapable, but I **am** in the middle of moving right now, so I'm going to choose to **not** read this during one of my breaks from that. I don't think it would help my stress levels. ;)
Thing is, Russia doesn't want to occupy Ukraine, it wants to occupy (and annex) the Russian-speaking part of Ukraine, most of whose inhabitants would probably prefer Russian rule anyway.
Your point about never taking on Cossacks is a good one. There are two badass peoples I believe the US should never ever make our enemies, Russians and Vietnamese. You don't have to like what they do, but you should structure your foreign policy never to find yourself in a shooting war with these nations, for whom suffering and privation is as central a part of their history as weekend barbecues are for ours.
If Putin doesn't declare victory over his de-Nazi success, the entire mess could spiral badly. The needed imports of Iranian missiles might be a game changer given the Russians are running out of their own missiles. Bringing Iran into the conflict may result in counter forces from the West that have much more effective capability to target inside Russia's launch points. And will Israel not take the opportunity to strike Iran?
Already we are seeing US stockpiles being reduced leading to a ramp up of replacement weapon manufacture. That makes our lizards pleased but demands more budget and more pain to the taxpayer's great grandchildren.
And how do we quell the desire for revenge by Ukrainians who have lost so much? Perhaps the rebuilding rewards many other lizards but again more tax money will be needed. The Russians have been badly hurt via the loss of productive men tossed away, Russian style and the sanctions really have harmed them as their oil production begins to decline and exploration has ended.
It would be lovely if Putin could declare victory and leave.
I found this a great description of the Ukraine situation. Including a fair outline of US and Russian involvement prior to and following 2014. War has plagued humanity...always. Usually if you take a step back, it occurs over resources, in this case oil. I realize the oligarchy enriches itself with oil. It’s a money maker because we all are so dependent on it. Oil is a precious commodity for every nation, especially given the developed, non-third world countries’ addiction to it. This include me and this include you. I am sincerely interested in hearing from Brad or anyone here that has a solution (or that could point me toward a link to) as to what steps are needed globally, or at least among developed, oil guzzling nations (including US, Russia and China) that would ultimately end in peace? It seems humanity is, and always has been, incapable of escaping short-sightedness and greed, as well as fighting for direly needed resources. It starts even at local levels, with each of us. Look how we tear each other apart in debates over oil conservation and/or alternative energy development. I think little folks like me are Desperately Seeking Su-lutions
But if I was going to quibble I'd say I don't think Putin was ever planning on occupying all of Ukraine like the US did in Iraq/Afghanistan. Likely he was hoping to shock and awe into Kiev, then force the Ukrainians to hand over the eastern parts of their country while leaving a puppet state in the West that would fall into infighting/civil war.
And I don't think he would have faced much of an insurgency in the east of Ukraine. A large part of the population is ethnically Russian and besides that from what I understand most of the people are largely apolitical and a lot of them would be ambivalent to who's in charge so long as things are generally stable. Perhaps there's some of the Cossack genetic/cultural history left, but there's also an ex-USSR hangover where a couple generations learned it's best to keep your head down and get on with it if you don't want to end up in the Gulag. Even if there was a strong anti-Russian minority in the area, it wouldn't be anything like trying to suppress a (somewhat) ethnically homogeneous country that hates you, sees you as invaders, and wants you to gtfo i.e. Iraq/Afghanistan.
Shock and awe take doesn't hold well since it was most likely a feint designed to a) pin down ukrainian forces in Kyiv region, b) extract something from Hostomel (some people speculate dirty bomb components), c) clear out Chernobyl NPP, d) force Ukraine to negitiate. There were no plans to storm Kyiv since the invasion force was far too small for 3M+ capital city. Regarding other tactical episodes there's a thing called mobile defence. Russia's fighting ukrainian (and the West's as proxy) military potential first, territories are secondary, especially if they cost too much to hold. It is a crucial difference in military doctrine since the West puts territories first (which cost dearly both Napoleon and that austrian painter).
Just found that one while looking for homicide stats.
> One kind is the Crusade, where one culture decides to subjugate and convert another culture entirely, killing their men, fucking their women, burning their books, and replacing their genes and memes to end that culture’s memetic and genetic influence on future Earth.
That exactly what Russians have been proclaiming themselves since about Day 3 of the full invasion, but I guess, not knowing Russian language is sort of a barrier to understand what's really going on. So the premise is wrong. Which is weird, it should be pretty obvious from what Russia has been doing publicly all this time.
The second kind of war was in 2014 when Russia got what they actually wanted: Crimean peninsula and coal mines. The painfully pathetic response by Obama admin to it (who sent one someone unpopular politician with an oversized button to talk to Russians), as well as similarly bad responses by Germany and France had probably something with the escalation from Kind 2 to Kind 1.
One factor in how easy it is to hold onto a conquered territory is how brutal you're prepared to be. There's no military reason why USA couldn't have simply massacred 90% of the population of Afghanistan, including 99% of all adult males, and re-seeded the country with its own people.
But this couldn't have happened because the American people wouldn't have stood for it. (And also because it would have created a world-wide anti-USA alliance in the same way that NATO is an anti-Russia alliance).
While all governments rule by a mixture of coercion and consent, the USA (and the West in general) uses less coercion and more consent than most historical and present-day societies (Russia included). This is why there is no big anti-USA alliance. It's also why, when Britain controlled a 1/4 of the world, the other great powers didn't form an alliance to halt its expansion.
Losing faster will save Russia money, if Putin can actually admit that he's losing and not continue to go all in on Sunken Cost Fallacy. I'm not sure he's even capable of it.
Either way, the actual cost of the invasion will likely pale to the cost of economic isolation, single-handedly driving Europe to fast-track its plans to become independent of Russian oil and gas, and the eventual necessity of becoming a Chinese vassal-state once all this is over and they spend a few years as a North-Korean style hermit kingdom, only without the resources and organizational ability of Koreans. It's just a matter of how many Russians will die before the keys are handed over to Xi.
As a south Ukraine peon who immigrated to US a few years ago, I like Western Lizards peons quality of life much much better :)
A few thoughts:
1.
It will be interesting to get some attempt of quantifiable comparison of the level of influence of Western Lizards vs Russian Lizards. I am under impression that the level of influence of Western Lizards in Ukraine is very overrated among Western Lizards peons. These lizards did a great job convincing their peons about how they (Western Lizards) are very mighty and nothing happened in these poor countries (like Ukraine) without a gentle CIA touch.
2.
South Ukraine (Zaporizhian Cossacks, and all other later gangs) was a big cultural melting pot. But it was leaning to Western Lizards way of doing governing their peons. This is in contrast to Muscovy/Russia with their actual Mongolian heritage.
Here is an example https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Constitution_of_Pylyp_Orlyk.
This is a clear example of Western Lizards type of law for peons.
> "If you are incapable of isolating and stripping out the morality portion of your brain, and setting it on a shelf, quit reading now because the rest of this article is just going to give you anxiety and I can’t be responsible for that. Anxiety is bad for your health. Go watch cat videos or something."
I'm generally *not* thus incapable, but I **am** in the middle of moving right now, so I'm going to choose to **not** read this during one of my breaks from that. I don't think it would help my stress levels. ;)
I'll come back in a week or something. :p
Thing is, Russia doesn't want to occupy Ukraine, it wants to occupy (and annex) the Russian-speaking part of Ukraine, most of whose inhabitants would probably prefer Russian rule anyway.
Your point about never taking on Cossacks is a good one. There are two badass peoples I believe the US should never ever make our enemies, Russians and Vietnamese. You don't have to like what they do, but you should structure your foreign policy never to find yourself in a shooting war with these nations, for whom suffering and privation is as central a part of their history as weekend barbecues are for ours.
yess, yess... *strokes cat*
If Putin doesn't declare victory over his de-Nazi success, the entire mess could spiral badly. The needed imports of Iranian missiles might be a game changer given the Russians are running out of their own missiles. Bringing Iran into the conflict may result in counter forces from the West that have much more effective capability to target inside Russia's launch points. And will Israel not take the opportunity to strike Iran?
Already we are seeing US stockpiles being reduced leading to a ramp up of replacement weapon manufacture. That makes our lizards pleased but demands more budget and more pain to the taxpayer's great grandchildren.
And how do we quell the desire for revenge by Ukrainians who have lost so much? Perhaps the rebuilding rewards many other lizards but again more tax money will be needed. The Russians have been badly hurt via the loss of productive men tossed away, Russian style and the sanctions really have harmed them as their oil production begins to decline and exploration has ended.
It would be lovely if Putin could declare victory and leave.
Great piece, but the omission of the human cost is notable
I found this a great description of the Ukraine situation. Including a fair outline of US and Russian involvement prior to and following 2014. War has plagued humanity...always. Usually if you take a step back, it occurs over resources, in this case oil. I realize the oligarchy enriches itself with oil. It’s a money maker because we all are so dependent on it. Oil is a precious commodity for every nation, especially given the developed, non-third world countries’ addiction to it. This include me and this include you. I am sincerely interested in hearing from Brad or anyone here that has a solution (or that could point me toward a link to) as to what steps are needed globally, or at least among developed, oil guzzling nations (including US, Russia and China) that would ultimately end in peace? It seems humanity is, and always has been, incapable of escaping short-sightedness and greed, as well as fighting for direly needed resources. It starts even at local levels, with each of us. Look how we tear each other apart in debates over oil conservation and/or alternative energy development. I think little folks like me are Desperately Seeking Su-lutions
Interesting and uncomfortably true perspective.
But if I was going to quibble I'd say I don't think Putin was ever planning on occupying all of Ukraine like the US did in Iraq/Afghanistan. Likely he was hoping to shock and awe into Kiev, then force the Ukrainians to hand over the eastern parts of their country while leaving a puppet state in the West that would fall into infighting/civil war.
And I don't think he would have faced much of an insurgency in the east of Ukraine. A large part of the population is ethnically Russian and besides that from what I understand most of the people are largely apolitical and a lot of them would be ambivalent to who's in charge so long as things are generally stable. Perhaps there's some of the Cossack genetic/cultural history left, but there's also an ex-USSR hangover where a couple generations learned it's best to keep your head down and get on with it if you don't want to end up in the Gulag. Even if there was a strong anti-Russian minority in the area, it wouldn't be anything like trying to suppress a (somewhat) ethnically homogeneous country that hates you, sees you as invaders, and wants you to gtfo i.e. Iraq/Afghanistan.
Shock and awe take doesn't hold well since it was most likely a feint designed to a) pin down ukrainian forces in Kyiv region, b) extract something from Hostomel (some people speculate dirty bomb components), c) clear out Chernobyl NPP, d) force Ukraine to negitiate. There were no plans to storm Kyiv since the invasion force was far too small for 3M+ capital city. Regarding other tactical episodes there's a thing called mobile defence. Russia's fighting ukrainian (and the West's as proxy) military potential first, territories are secondary, especially if they cost too much to hold. It is a crucial difference in military doctrine since the West puts territories first (which cost dearly both Napoleon and that austrian painter).
Just found that one while looking for homicide stats.
> One kind is the Crusade, where one culture decides to subjugate and convert another culture entirely, killing their men, fucking their women, burning their books, and replacing their genes and memes to end that culture’s memetic and genetic influence on future Earth.
That exactly what Russians have been proclaiming themselves since about Day 3 of the full invasion, but I guess, not knowing Russian language is sort of a barrier to understand what's really going on. So the premise is wrong. Which is weird, it should be pretty obvious from what Russia has been doing publicly all this time.
The second kind of war was in 2014 when Russia got what they actually wanted: Crimean peninsula and coal mines. The painfully pathetic response by Obama admin to it (who sent one someone unpopular politician with an oversized button to talk to Russians), as well as similarly bad responses by Germany and France had probably something with the escalation from Kind 2 to Kind 1.
it should be cheap beer, not cheep beer. Or were you going for the visual alliteration? Is there such a thing as visual alliteration?
One factor in how easy it is to hold onto a conquered territory is how brutal you're prepared to be. There's no military reason why USA couldn't have simply massacred 90% of the population of Afghanistan, including 99% of all adult males, and re-seeded the country with its own people.
But this couldn't have happened because the American people wouldn't have stood for it. (And also because it would have created a world-wide anti-USA alliance in the same way that NATO is an anti-Russia alliance).
While all governments rule by a mixture of coercion and consent, the USA (and the West in general) uses less coercion and more consent than most historical and present-day societies (Russia included). This is why there is no big anti-USA alliance. It's also why, when Britain controlled a 1/4 of the world, the other great powers didn't form an alliance to halt its expansion.
Someone should start a conspiracy story about Putin being a US asset. Or, maybe that's what I just did. (I didn't)
Linked
Losing faster will save Russia money, if Putin can actually admit that he's losing and not continue to go all in on Sunken Cost Fallacy. I'm not sure he's even capable of it.
Either way, the actual cost of the invasion will likely pale to the cost of economic isolation, single-handedly driving Europe to fast-track its plans to become independent of Russian oil and gas, and the eventual necessity of becoming a Chinese vassal-state once all this is over and they spend a few years as a North-Korean style hermit kingdom, only without the resources and organizational ability of Koreans. It's just a matter of how many Russians will die before the keys are handed over to Xi.