Interesting, intelligent and intriguing perspectives. Whatever the scenario, even the unpredicted black swan event, I think I may now look forward to the civil unrest. At some point this giant festering pimple has to pop, or sepsis will set in everywhere. Better to treat it, than to keep covering it up with clown make up.
> "Biden could be replaced by DNC back room deals, probably by Newsom. The chances of this shrink with every passing day, but Biden’s mental health shrinks as well, so let’s throw 25% at this chance for the time being."
I dunno. I feel like the chances of his being replaced are higher, and I think they're going to break out the rock star power fandom vote by picking Michelle Obama, if she's dumb enough to take the job. Which she may well not be.
Newsom... Ugh. I dunno. I feel like everyone knows he's a terrible leader already. Which might not stop him from beating Trump, but I dunno if he could take on Haley. Who, if Trump is out, is likely the candidate no matter how much I despise that possibility.
Haley versus Newsom is full on "Alien versus Predator" vibes again. No matter who wins, we lose.
I think this is a good analysis, but if I were to discuss it with say police chiefs (or really anyone who wasn't a giant stats nerd) I would be sure to point out and make absolutely clear that these are expected values from right this second, and as soon as primary season starts getting solidified those numbers are going to jump around a lot. In other words, once we know Trump is the Republican nominee, the probability of left wing riots if he wins goes up a lot. A lot of the expected value is discounted by not knowing now who will be the nominees, but once we are in 'given these guys are the nominees" territory those numbers increase, by around 30% in the Trump case.
The reason I would stress all that is that by the time we do know, it might be a little late to start preparing against the problems. If I were a police chief in a fairly blue area... well ok I wouldn't give a damn because my political superiors would probably be telling me not to, but if it was me and I somehow had snuck in and wanted to do what was right... I would be preparing now under the assumption that Trump was on the ticket and would win.
I think maybe you are over-estimating the probability of assassination while not considering how one of the candidates getting killed would affect the probabilities downstream. If, for example, Trump gets shot, then his replacement nominee loses, it would need to be the most absolutely above board, clearly perfect election ever recorded by humans. Otherwise, what could those on right think other than "See, if we nominate who they don't like, they just kill them and cheat in the election anyway. Democracy is dead, and so is the Union!" (The lawfare angle might achieve that as well, but assassination definitely will, or 90% will I think.)
Likewise, if Biden gets killed the only way it doesn't likely result in violence is if he is if his replacement wins. I agree that Biden isn't all that popular personally, but that kind of crisis is just too ripe to let slide.
Personally, I think the probability of assassination is rather lower than 10%, probably closer to 1, so I would be tempted to just take it out of the estimates over all and not have to worry about the down steam effects at all. Left in, I think one would have to consider two different decision trees at least, and probably like six, based on WHY Trump or Biden isn't on the ticket. Trump not being on the ballot because he (has a heart attack/retires/doesn't get votes) is a different case from (get legally barred) and a VERY different case from (catches a bullet). I suspect Biden's case set is similar, but maybe the individual outcomes are closer because as you say Biden is himself less popular, so if the DNC finds a way to legally oust him (mentally unsound votes the cabinet) there will be no real blowback.
I think your assassinations probability is way too high. The first three presidents that got whacked had virtually no protection (Lincoln had one bodyguard). IMO, only JFK counts (2.2, not 8.7%).
Neither Biden nor Trump is going to get shot. More likely, is one of the Conservative Supremes getting taken out. I don't think anyone can set odds on something like this. Remember, at the end of the day, all lawfare will be decided by the High Court.
Either way, your analysis applies to the nation as a whole. The comparison events, namely hurricanes, are local. Here in NYC (where we have daily "civil disobedience") my gut feel is that the odds of Cat 4 or 5 Mostly Peaceful Riots is 100% in the event of a Trump win.
I think most people on the Left would disagree with your assessment of the Jan. 6 "Insurrection" clocking in at a 3 or your assessing the "mostly peaceful" Floyd protests at 100. The Left tends to be driven by emotion combined with partisan "truths," not mathematical analysis!
I'm guessing that Biden/Harris will be replaced at the last minute, with little time for vetting of the new candidates. The Democrats have a very highly developed election machine advantage. The Republicans do not. It leads me think that the Democrats will win in any case. In this scenario, there will be little to no violence.
Definitely agree that Democrats are more likely to riot.
What do you think the odds are on Trump saying the election was stolen, yet again? Maybe he wouldn't be able to plan as well, this time, if he's not in power already?
If you think it's 49% odds against a Trump vs Biden rematch, then I would gladly bet some money against that.
Two thoughts. 1. Another scenario - Trump is the Republican nominee, but even without a conviction for insurrection, one or more blue states refuses to put him on the ballot. Or Trump is on the ballot everywhere, but the suspicion of election fraud is deeper than in 2020. Given all that has happened so far, I rate the first idea as a non-zero probability, and the second as a near certainty. Either will definitely change the odds of, and nature of, civil unrest. 2. Your MPS20 definition includes arrests, but not convictions. Is that because out of the 14,000 arrests there were essentially zero convictions? I don’t remember any trials, much less convictions, so I believe that correlation is either absolutely true or essentially correct.
If BLM, ANTIFA, and other leftist groups continue to riot without fear of prison time, at some point those to the right of center (and especially those well right of center) will react violently. I also realize that statement is about as controversial as saying that water is wet. My view of the most likely division within the country - one third leftist activists/rioters or sympathizers, one third right wing activists or sympathizers, and one third that is too afraid to take a stand, but will go along with whatever plays out. That was the case in the American Revolution and appears to be the human condition.
I think there will be more rioting than that if Trump wins. The people denigrating anyone who dared question the "free and fair election" of 2020 are going to come out in droves to riot should they not get the "free and fair election" results they want. I don't have anything to back this up, just a hunch.
It may be because I am currently reading a history of Reconstruction but I am more concerned about violence and threats thereof before or during the election than afterwards. It is pretty easy to identify areas with a strong predilection for one party or the other and target those. Campaign offices typically have big signs on them. Depressing turnout in this way can have a big impact both on the outcome and the legitimacy of the election.
"The Floyd Riots were about one third of a 9-11 event."
I think the Floyd riots (_approximately_ 100, perhaps a bit more, per original HWFO definition) were somewhere around 3 percent of a 9-11 event, not one third. I haven't checked your 3431 aka 34 Floyds number for 9-11 (from the 2022 post) in detail, but taking it for granted, what is an order of magnitude when there is a political point to be made?
Interesting, intelligent and intriguing perspectives. Whatever the scenario, even the unpredicted black swan event, I think I may now look forward to the civil unrest. At some point this giant festering pimple has to pop, or sepsis will set in everywhere. Better to treat it, than to keep covering it up with clown make up.
> "Biden could be replaced by DNC back room deals, probably by Newsom. The chances of this shrink with every passing day, but Biden’s mental health shrinks as well, so let’s throw 25% at this chance for the time being."
I dunno. I feel like the chances of his being replaced are higher, and I think they're going to break out the rock star power fandom vote by picking Michelle Obama, if she's dumb enough to take the job. Which she may well not be.
Newsom... Ugh. I dunno. I feel like everyone knows he's a terrible leader already. Which might not stop him from beating Trump, but I dunno if he could take on Haley. Who, if Trump is out, is likely the candidate no matter how much I despise that possibility.
Haley versus Newsom is full on "Alien versus Predator" vibes again. No matter who wins, we lose.
I think this is a good analysis, but if I were to discuss it with say police chiefs (or really anyone who wasn't a giant stats nerd) I would be sure to point out and make absolutely clear that these are expected values from right this second, and as soon as primary season starts getting solidified those numbers are going to jump around a lot. In other words, once we know Trump is the Republican nominee, the probability of left wing riots if he wins goes up a lot. A lot of the expected value is discounted by not knowing now who will be the nominees, but once we are in 'given these guys are the nominees" territory those numbers increase, by around 30% in the Trump case.
The reason I would stress all that is that by the time we do know, it might be a little late to start preparing against the problems. If I were a police chief in a fairly blue area... well ok I wouldn't give a damn because my political superiors would probably be telling me not to, but if it was me and I somehow had snuck in and wanted to do what was right... I would be preparing now under the assumption that Trump was on the ticket and would win.
I think maybe you are over-estimating the probability of assassination while not considering how one of the candidates getting killed would affect the probabilities downstream. If, for example, Trump gets shot, then his replacement nominee loses, it would need to be the most absolutely above board, clearly perfect election ever recorded by humans. Otherwise, what could those on right think other than "See, if we nominate who they don't like, they just kill them and cheat in the election anyway. Democracy is dead, and so is the Union!" (The lawfare angle might achieve that as well, but assassination definitely will, or 90% will I think.)
Likewise, if Biden gets killed the only way it doesn't likely result in violence is if he is if his replacement wins. I agree that Biden isn't all that popular personally, but that kind of crisis is just too ripe to let slide.
Personally, I think the probability of assassination is rather lower than 10%, probably closer to 1, so I would be tempted to just take it out of the estimates over all and not have to worry about the down steam effects at all. Left in, I think one would have to consider two different decision trees at least, and probably like six, based on WHY Trump or Biden isn't on the ticket. Trump not being on the ballot because he (has a heart attack/retires/doesn't get votes) is a different case from (get legally barred) and a VERY different case from (catches a bullet). I suspect Biden's case set is similar, but maybe the individual outcomes are closer because as you say Biden is himself less popular, so if the DNC finds a way to legally oust him (mentally unsound votes the cabinet) there will be no real blowback.
I think your assassinations probability is way too high. The first three presidents that got whacked had virtually no protection (Lincoln had one bodyguard). IMO, only JFK counts (2.2, not 8.7%).
Neither Biden nor Trump is going to get shot. More likely, is one of the Conservative Supremes getting taken out. I don't think anyone can set odds on something like this. Remember, at the end of the day, all lawfare will be decided by the High Court.
Either way, your analysis applies to the nation as a whole. The comparison events, namely hurricanes, are local. Here in NYC (where we have daily "civil disobedience") my gut feel is that the odds of Cat 4 or 5 Mostly Peaceful Riots is 100% in the event of a Trump win.
I think most people on the Left would disagree with your assessment of the Jan. 6 "Insurrection" clocking in at a 3 or your assessing the "mostly peaceful" Floyd protests at 100. The Left tends to be driven by emotion combined with partisan "truths," not mathematical analysis!
I'm guessing that Biden/Harris will be replaced at the last minute, with little time for vetting of the new candidates. The Democrats have a very highly developed election machine advantage. The Republicans do not. It leads me think that the Democrats will win in any case. In this scenario, there will be little to no violence.
Now, all we need to factor in is reserve currency collapse and dollar devaluation percentages for each outcome.
Because IMO that's the Big Show, everything else is a sideshow.
What are the odds that the whole system burns up. Niro style.🤞🏻
Definitely agree that Democrats are more likely to riot.
What do you think the odds are on Trump saying the election was stolen, yet again? Maybe he wouldn't be able to plan as well, this time, if he's not in power already?
If you think it's 49% odds against a Trump vs Biden rematch, then I would gladly bet some money against that.
Two thoughts. 1. Another scenario - Trump is the Republican nominee, but even without a conviction for insurrection, one or more blue states refuses to put him on the ballot. Or Trump is on the ballot everywhere, but the suspicion of election fraud is deeper than in 2020. Given all that has happened so far, I rate the first idea as a non-zero probability, and the second as a near certainty. Either will definitely change the odds of, and nature of, civil unrest. 2. Your MPS20 definition includes arrests, but not convictions. Is that because out of the 14,000 arrests there were essentially zero convictions? I don’t remember any trials, much less convictions, so I believe that correlation is either absolutely true or essentially correct.
If BLM, ANTIFA, and other leftist groups continue to riot without fear of prison time, at some point those to the right of center (and especially those well right of center) will react violently. I also realize that statement is about as controversial as saying that water is wet. My view of the most likely division within the country - one third leftist activists/rioters or sympathizers, one third right wing activists or sympathizers, and one third that is too afraid to take a stand, but will go along with whatever plays out. That was the case in the American Revolution and appears to be the human condition.
No need to re-run any analysis but does your model consider the increased rate of gun ownership among the population?
I think there will be more rioting than that if Trump wins. The people denigrating anyone who dared question the "free and fair election" of 2020 are going to come out in droves to riot should they not get the "free and fair election" results they want. I don't have anything to back this up, just a hunch.
It may be because I am currently reading a history of Reconstruction but I am more concerned about violence and threats thereof before or during the election than afterwards. It is pretty easy to identify areas with a strong predilection for one party or the other and target those. Campaign offices typically have big signs on them. Depressing turnout in this way can have a big impact both on the outcome and the legitimacy of the election.
No, because Biden would still be pres then? Definitely not a cause to celebrate.
If the election is not held for any reason at all will people dance in the street?
https://youtu.be/68Uv959QuCg?t=2
"The Floyd Riots were about one third of a 9-11 event."
I think the Floyd riots (_approximately_ 100, perhaps a bit more, per original HWFO definition) were somewhere around 3 percent of a 9-11 event, not one third. I haven't checked your 3431 aka 34 Floyds number for 9-11 (from the 2022 post) in detail, but taking it for granted, what is an order of magnitude when there is a political point to be made?