Previously you have defined Moloch as "undesirable saddle points in real-life game theory" but I would quibble with that definition a bit. I think the concept of Moloch includes the idea that tech advancement creates *new* undesirable saddle points. That is, when tech progresses, it creates new ways for people to sell their souls for sil…
Previously you have defined Moloch as "undesirable saddle points in real-life game theory" but I would quibble with that definition a bit. I think the concept of Moloch includes the idea that tech advancement creates *new* undesirable saddle points. That is, when tech progresses, it creates new ways for people to sell their souls for silver. But I think most rationalists would also agree that technological progress also offers the possibility of new and interesting ways out of these saddle points. I think most people would agree that life today *can be* more rich and meaningful than life 100,000 yrs ago, even though we have more ways to fail. Extending this to your argument about the Israel/Palestine conflict, it seems very possible that new developments could enable new solutions there, even if it is a game-theoretic saddle point.
It's possible. A large percentage of the population has been so jaded by covid that their immediate reaction to anything in the news is "lol false flag psyop". Trust in institutions continues to erode, and the internet (while certainly not perfect) allows for a much more complete story than people had about 9/11 or Pearl Harbor. The old tricks might not work anymore.
The damage done to trust levels through covid disinformation and the following business, in broad strokes throughout society, cannot be underestimated.
I sometimes wonder how different it would be if the pandemic had not hit on an election year with one of the most polarizing set of candidates ever presented.
There probably isn't a good one, but can you cite an example that is generally similar and a good metaphor?
Have you seen Warby of Oz's substack article on the anthropology and evolutionary archetypes (psychological archetypes) involved?
Gerhard Lenski's ecological-evolutionary theory of social evolution, used by Ken Wilber, indicates that the climate, environment, economic modes and geopolitics of trade routes will lock in a "cultural gravity well" that sucks everything modern down into a sh1thole of regressive tribalism.
Can you link to the Warby article you’re referring to? I have read some of his stuff and generally find it interesting.
I also agree that Lenskis theory is relevant, but I wouldn’t characterize it as saying everything leads to Tribalism. New technologies lead to new cultures and vice versa.
As for an example, one that comes to mind is the impact of the printing press. Obviously had many consequences, but one was the end of Catholic dominance and the eventual unification of Germany. It took new technology and cataclysmic conflict to end some of the longstanding rivalries and conflicts.
Lenski's theory has to be turned into a mirror, reversed, to see how disruption leads to disintegration to regression to tribalism. Ronfeldt (TIMN model) explicitly describes such reverse evolution/regression, so he is probably a better reference.
Previously you have defined Moloch as "undesirable saddle points in real-life game theory" but I would quibble with that definition a bit. I think the concept of Moloch includes the idea that tech advancement creates *new* undesirable saddle points. That is, when tech progresses, it creates new ways for people to sell their souls for silver. But I think most rationalists would also agree that technological progress also offers the possibility of new and interesting ways out of these saddle points. I think most people would agree that life today *can be* more rich and meaningful than life 100,000 yrs ago, even though we have more ways to fail. Extending this to your argument about the Israel/Palestine conflict, it seems very possible that new developments could enable new solutions there, even if it is a game-theoretic saddle point.
It's possible. A large percentage of the population has been so jaded by covid that their immediate reaction to anything in the news is "lol false flag psyop". Trust in institutions continues to erode, and the internet (while certainly not perfect) allows for a much more complete story than people had about 9/11 or Pearl Harbor. The old tricks might not work anymore.
the population in the middle east?
The damage done to trust levels through covid disinformation and the following business, in broad strokes throughout society, cannot be underestimated.
I sometimes wonder how different it would be if the pandemic had not hit on an election year with one of the most polarizing set of candidates ever presented.
There probably isn't a good one, but can you cite an example that is generally similar and a good metaphor?
Have you seen Warby of Oz's substack article on the anthropology and evolutionary archetypes (psychological archetypes) involved?
Gerhard Lenski's ecological-evolutionary theory of social evolution, used by Ken Wilber, indicates that the climate, environment, economic modes and geopolitics of trade routes will lock in a "cultural gravity well" that sucks everything modern down into a sh1thole of regressive tribalism.
Can you link to the Warby article you’re referring to? I have read some of his stuff and generally find it interesting.
I also agree that Lenskis theory is relevant, but I wouldn’t characterize it as saying everything leads to Tribalism. New technologies lead to new cultures and vice versa.
As for an example, one that comes to mind is the impact of the printing press. Obviously had many consequences, but one was the end of Catholic dominance and the eventual unification of Germany. It took new technology and cataclysmic conflict to end some of the longstanding rivalries and conflicts.
https://www.lorenzofromoz.net/p/hamas-displays-a-muslim-way-of-war
Lenski's theory has to be turned into a mirror, reversed, to see how disruption leads to disintegration to regression to tribalism. Ronfeldt (TIMN model) explicitly describes such reverse evolution/regression, so he is probably a better reference.
https://blog.p2pfoundation.net/david-ronfeldts-timn-and-the-four-forms-of-governance/2009/05/20
both Bauwens and Ronfeldt are on substack!