Handwaving Freakoutery

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HWFO Reading List

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HWFO Reading List

A homework list to catch up on the stuff we're talking about in private.

Handwaving Freakoutery
Mar 15
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HWFO Reading List

hwfo.substack.com
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In the wake of the great argument about the “self awareness” of ChatGPT and Bing AI, whether they are true intelligences or glorified autocomplete bots, and whether human beings themselves are likewise true intelligences or just autocomplete bots, it occurred to me that everything in the universe is derivative.

This isn’t an original idea. It is, in fact, derivative.

Everything is derivative. Everything is a remix, and we all stand on the shoulders of giants - a great phrase.

(so speaks the guy who founded Reddit)

He also apparently marred Serena Williams.

But if everything is derivative, then so am I, and so is HWFO, and if you’re a reader and have some interest in learning from whence the ideas in this blog flow, it might be of interest for you to skip one layer past us and look at the source. Below are a set of links to articles, blogs, and scientific studies that I personally have found interesting over the past month, and are being discussed on the HWFO Slack server, to which you can gain access by subscribing to HWFO.

1.

Disaggregating the difference between intelligence and rationality:

The Prism
Why Smart People Believe Stupid Things
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a month ago · 502 likes · 163 comments · Gurwinder

Two scientific studies related to this topic:

https://scholarsbank.uoregon.edu/xmlui/bitstream/handle/1794/22105/833.pdf

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6338713/#!po=0.714286

2.

“The Kids Are Not Okay” - a deep dive on the overall mental health problem in the younger generation and it’s source, which advocates blaming cell phones:

https://thezvi.wordpress.com/2023/03/08/the-kids-are-not-okay/

Related musings from Jonathan Haidt:

After Babel
Why the Mental Health of Liberal Girls Sank First and Fastest
In May 2014, Greg Lukianoff invited me to lunch to talk about something he was seeing on college campuses that disturbed him. Greg is the president of FIRE (the Foundation for Individual Rights and Expression), and he has worked tirelessly since 2001 to defend the free speech rights of college students. That almost always meant pushing back against administrators who didn’t want students to cause trouble, and who justified their suppression of speech with appeals to the emotional “safety” of students—appeals that the students themselves didn’t buy. But in late 2013, Greg began to encounter new cases in which…
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18 days ago · 873 likes · 339 comments · Jon Haidt

3.

“The Political Spectrum Does Not Exist.” A deeply referential post with many linkbacks to supporting pieces which defends the claim that politics are nothing more than tribal affiliation with no unifying core beliefs.

https://heterodoxacademy.org/blog/social-science-political-spectrum/

Related - partisan thinking literally impedes rational thought, according to magnetic resonance imaging science:

https://www.libertarianism.org/articles/partisan-brain

4.

A central timeline of the changing narrative of the Lab Leak Theory of Covid-19, routinely updated, with references:

https://ground.news/timeline/lab-leak-theory

5.

IQ only tracks with earnings until you get into the top 5%, after that it plateaus and even drops off a bit:

https://bigthink.com/the-present/highest-earning-men-intelligent/

The original study is here, and seems to align almost perfectly with this classic HWFO post:

https://academic.oup.com/esr/advance-article/doi/10.1093/esr/jcac076/7008955?login=false

Handwaving Freakoutery
Real Talk about Meritocracy
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2 years ago · 11 likes · 12 comments · Handwaving Freakoutery

BUT there’s a robust rebuttal to the Big Think article and study here:

Just Emil Kirkegaard Things
There is no IQ threshold effect, also not for income
We've been over this before, but it's a perennial topic. People like to claim that beyond a certain level of intelligence, additional intelligence doesn't help to get X, where X variously claimed to be creativity, income, or success in life more generally. Malcolm Gladwell famously claimed this in his 2008 book…
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a month ago · 36 likes · 16 comments · Emil O. W. Kirkegaard

I leave you to draw your own conclusions.

6.

When did New York start building things more slowly, and why?

Construction Physics
When did New York start building slowly?
It’s good to be able to build things quickly. The faster you build something, the quicker the benefits from it accrue, making it more valuable. Additionally, you can reallocate your resources to another project, letting you build more things overall. Building things faster also generally means building them cheaper. If you’re building slowl…
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12 days ago · 2 likes · Brian Potter

This article was data driven and very intelligent, and may signify the beginning of a series of articles. I find Construction Physics to be one of the best Substacks going right now.

7.

Rozado runs the bias test against GPT-4, and find that it has guardrails to seem neutral, which are easily bypassed, and lead to an underbelly even more politically biased than GPT-3.

Rozado’s Visual Analytics
The Political Biases of GPT-4
I have previously documented extensively the political biases of ChatGPT and the unequal treatment of demographic groups by its content moderation system. I also created RightWingGPT, an LLM model from the GPT 3 family fine-tuned to exhibit the opposite political biases of ChatGPT. The purpose of the…
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13 days ago · 11 likes · 1 comment · David Rozado

I hope to make more of these posts on the 15th of every month.

There will be a test.

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7 Comments
Bob Newby
Mar 16Liked by Handwaving Freakoutery

based on your readings, if you ever felt like “unplugging” and tuning into some boob tube, that you’d probably appreciate the series Legion that appeared on FX (now on hulu). not your typical superhero, yet is marvel (main character is professor x’s bastard son who grew up thinking he was schizophrenic) tangential. it dives deep into delusion with some great visuals and soundtrack along the way.

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Derek
Mar 15

The test is whether you survive to pass on your genes and memes.

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