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HWFO Reading List August 2023

hwfo.substack.com
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HWFO Reading List August 2023

And a few videos as well

Handwaving Freakoutery
Aug 15, 2023
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HWFO Reading List August 2023

hwfo.substack.com
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HWFO dropped this article in a neopagan feminist nerd zine in 2018, inking me as likely the only person alive with a hardcopy article in something like that and also in RECOIL. While the superficial topic of the article was racism and IQ, the finale thesis was that soon IQ won’t matter as AI advances. Five years later this looks very prophetic.

Culture

Modeling the Socioeconomic Future with Dungeons and Dragons

Handwaving Freakoutery
·
March 3, 2021
Modeling the Socioeconomic Future with Dungeons and Dragons

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But what I didn’t anticipate was how quickly AI was going to invade not only the INT stat, but also the CHA stat. Paul Joseph Watson deserves to be shared, if nothing else, for the awesome title of this youtube video which covers how e-girls are the first on the creative automation chopping block:

While we’re reminiscing about the classics, this ACX fiction is worth re-reading, or just reading if you never read it:

Astral Codex Ten
Every Bay Area House Party
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a year ago · 587 likes · 298 comments · Scott Alexander

Haidt’s Substack continues to be worth reading, if for no other reason than he’s dropping nuggets of his book material in digestible quantities which may mean you don’t actually have to buy his next real book.

After Babel
Play Deprivation Is A Major Cause of the Teen Mental Health Crisis
The central idea of my forthcoming book, The Anxious Generation, is that we have overprotected children in the real world, where they need a lot of free play and autonomy,while underprotecting them online, where they are not developmentally ready for much of what happens to them. Much of my thinking about the importance of free play comes from…
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2 months ago · 335 likes · 128 comments · Jon Haidt and Peter Gray

This challenged one of my environmental priors in a relatively robust way, although a lot of the HWFO readers considered the analysis to be sloppy. My priors remain challenged:

Noahpinion
No, the U.S. didn't outsource our carbon emissions to China
It’s no longer possible for any reasonable person to deny the existence of human-generated climate change. And as Pakistan suffers under record flooding, Greenland’s ice melts in September, and countries around the world are hit by record-breaking heat wave…
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a year ago · 157 likes · 93 comments · Noah Smith

This is “classic Kareem” at Open Source Defense, and it inspired me to tool around with a different kind of Laffer Curve analysis on crime itself for a future article:

Open Source Defense
OSD 232: The gun control Laffer curve
In December 1974, a 38-year-old Donald Rumsfeld and a 33-year-old Dick Cheney sat down for dinner at a restaurant two blocks from the White House. Joining them were an editor at the Wall Street Journal, and a young economics professor named Arthur Laffer. Then-President Gerald Ford had put forth a proposal to raise taxes, and Rumsfeld and Cheney — at th…
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2 months ago · 19 likes · 1 comment · Open Source Defense

This also challenged my priors, and makes me hopeful for the future of US infrastructure:

Construction Physics
The Worst US Bridges are Getting Fixed
It’s become a common assumption that US infrastructure is in a poor state of repair; that our roads, bridges, pipes, and transmission lines are decaying faster than they’re being repaired or replaced. This concern goes back to the early 1980s, when the book …
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a month ago · 64 likes · 12 comments · Brian Potter

The “liberalism is a mental disease” people often go far too overboard with rhetoric without backup data. This article is the opposite of that:

https://unherd.com/2023/06/is-liberal-society-making-us-ill/

From the “IQ is genetic” front, a new statistical approach to disentangling genetic and environmental factors in twin studies shows that 51% of educational attainment is predictable by genetics alone:

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41539-023-00173-y

I wanted to write an article about how CAFE standards killed light trucks and provided a net disadvantage to environmentalism, but after doing some research I concluded that nothing I could write would do a better job explaining it than this youtube video:

buy the author a 1998 ranger

Jeff Asher, author for the Atlantic, inadvertently bucked some narratives by pointing out that this past year sported one of the largest drops in overall murder rate in recorded history. (-12.2% YTD) He goes into more detail on his blog:

Jeff-alytics
Contextualizing the Largest Decline in Murder Ever Recorded
A piece I had been working on for a while finally came out this week in The Atlantic detailing the drop in murder occurring nationally so far this year. Longtime Jeff-alytics readers should not be surprised as I’ve written on this subject a few times…
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3 months ago · 10 likes · 1 comment · Jeff Asher

I’m always wary of “smoking gun evidence,” but I’ve also always been wary of the idea of dark matter itself since it all seemed to be cooked up from thin air. Astrophysicist Kyu-Hyun Chae from Seoul Korea just released a fascinating study on wide binary star orbits which shows that at very low orbital accelerations these stars start to vary from Newtonian or Einsteinian predictions, and if you correct properly for this effect you no longer need dark matter as a fudge factor to explain observable galactic rotation. This could put a shit pile of physicists out on the street looking for new things to build their careers around. More:

https://phys.org/news/2023-08-smoking-gun-evidence-gravity-gaia-wide.html

HWFO has taken a firm public stance that we should Burn the Universities and Salt the Earth, and WSJ released a great analysis of exactly how much money these universities are burning:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/state-university-tuition-increase-spending-41a58100

Kinda culture-war-ish, but in my opinion worth the read, Hannah Spier outlines her frustration with how the virtuals fetishize the reals without understanding them in The Federalist:

https://thefederalist.com/2023/07/27/the-laptop-class-fetish-for-manual-labor-is-an-attempt-to-justify-privilege/

Open Source Defense member Chuck Rossi did a podcast with Tactical Payments about how to reach non-traditional gun owners. It’s good and has received almost no traffic, so you might consider watching it just to pump their numbers up:

I wish I could come up with an article title as good as “Spider Capable of Causing Permanent Erections Shuts Down Entire Supermarket.”

https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/spider-capable-of-causing-permanent-erections-shuts-down-entire-supermarket/ar-AA1f6mgE

This rant by Billionaire Psycho is riveting:

Billionaire Psycho
Pygmalion and the Anime Girl
“Young men, let me make a suggestion to you: Why don’t you turn off the computer, log off the porn, and go ask a real woman on a date. How ’bout that? Just a thought. Ask her out. Young men, why don’t you be the ones who do the asking, how ’bout that? Don’t wait for her. You go ask — show her a…
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2 months ago · 216 likes · 269 comments · Billionaire Psycho

But also provoked several stiff rebuttals, including this:

Doc Hammer's Anvil
Junk Food for the Mind
This past week the Tonic 7 (about 4-5 attending) discussed the article Pygmalion and the Anime Girl, which has drawn a lot of attention and popularity in the past week or two. I wasn’t involved in the talk, which is unfortunate because unlike the lads I really disliked the work. Honestly, it might just be me, because I do not understand why people seem …
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2 months ago · 26 likes · 39 comments · Doctor Hammer

And finally, I would not qualify the offshore wind turbine industry killing the last of the Right Whales with federal government approval to be the “biggest” environmental scandal in the world today. I happen to think plastic recycling itself is probably a bigger scandal. But it certainly ranks up there in the list of “environmentalists taking their Ls,” at the cost of a severely endangered species, which is worth reading about. This article is very well researched:

Public
The Biggest Environmental Scandal In The World
Watch now (44 secs) | A dead whale washed ashore on Takanassee Beach in New Jersey in the early evening yesterday. Police blocked off the area so tractors could be brought in to remove it. “We were sitting on the beach yesterday, and I noticed it when people started running up to it…
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a month ago · 590 likes · 110 comments · Michael Shellenberger

If you want to stay on top of these and much more as the HWFO community digs them out to talk about them in real time, subscribe and join the private Slack server.

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HWFO Reading List August 2023

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HWFO Reading List August 2023

hwfo.substack.com
The Possum
Aug 15Liked by Handwaving Freakoutery

These Reading List posts alone are worth the price of admission. Thank you for providing a never-ending buffet of food for thought 😃

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Doctor Hammer
Writes Doc Hammer's Anvil
Aug 15Liked by Handwaving Freakoutery

Thanks for the link! I am tempted to write up a "now, let's look at those statistics" post on that as well, but time constraints and a feeling of not wanting to spend what time I have jumping up and down on one article are preventing me :)

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